Updated April, 2018
Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom, Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel
Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
- Published: 20 July 2017 20 July 2017
Demos double frequency G.fast and cDTA with Deutsche Telekom. Adtran only claims "gigabit rates" but the technology is designed for over a gigabit and a half, combined upstream and downstream. I infer from their comments they are ready to ship. They also claim good performance from DTA, rapidly shifting upstream and downstream ratios based on traffic demands.
Sckipio's supplying the chips for cDTA, according to Richard Chirgwin in The Register. With the DTA now working on ordinary twisted pair. Telcos to claim "effective speeds of 500 upstream, 500 downstream." G.fast from fiber to the basement or wireless to the rooftop now outshines gigabit DOCSIS, especially on the upstream. Few cablecos are likely to improve their upstream significantly before Full Duplex is ready next decade. Verizon is heavily advertising their 50/50 & 100/100 Fios speeds because the higher upstream is winning customers.
- Published: 17 July 2017 17 July 2017
The 44 building trial went well and Miller expects G.fast to deploy widely. Century, the $17B telco that swallowed Qwest, has 6M broadband lines. many of which need to be upgraded. He has to replace the older lines despite modestly reduced capex. G.fast is cost effective and hence a natural choice. He didn't give a projection but sounded like he planned to move quickly.
Sean Buckley of Fierce captured Miller's comments at the Calix Analyst meeting. “When I first came to CenturyLink as the VP of architecture and strategy, my main call was more tied to service velocity,” Miller said. “Our competition of the future is not a telecom company, but rather the Amazon, Facebooks and Hulus of the world, so we had this one time to transform to a software platform and the first to key projects are G.fast and NG-PON2.”
- Published: 10 July 2017 10 July 2017
Carl's epiphany: the box business was going to shrink; software was going to become king; the carriers' traditional revenue would stagnate or worse. More recently, I heard much the same things from AT&T. It's now the common wisdom. Ten years ago, I didn't put all that together and I think few others did.
To decide the right moves, he started with the question "What will Calix's customers need in ten years?" His first conclusion was that the carriers would need to find massive new revenues. That would require extreme flexibility, including a network designed to satisfy new demands rapidly. With revenues flat to down, the carriers would need to cut costs drastically to stay profitable. Inevitably, that would squeeze their suppliers.
Russo decided the answer was agile software that brought carrier products to market quickly and allowed using less expensive standard hardware.
- Published: 10 July 2017 10 July 2017
Alphonzo Samuels of Telkom South Africa has just added G.fast to his very extensive toolkit. Samuels said at BBWF he needed to offer European quality service in some of his regions and also reach vast areas that have no electricity. They have world class tech companies like Ubuntu and Dimension Data and luxury flats in the major cities. Folks like that demand and usually get the best.
Three years ago, Samuels told me he expected to use fiber home, G.fast, and vectoring in different areas. Only fiber home has been announced. They have now demonstrated G.Fast to an office complex in Pinelands and announced a wider deployment later this year. The volume should be substantial; Nokia projects SA will "soon join the top 10 companies worldwide deploying the technology." They've released no estimates of how many and when.
- Published: 09 July 2017 09 July 2017
Rami Verbin of Sckipio has no doubts: Doubling the frequency range will double speeds from today's 500-800 megabits. Soon, perhaps in 2018, apartment buildings will get 1200-1500 megabits from either fiber to the basement or wireless to the rooftop. Close in distribution points, like those announced by Australia's NBN, will also see those speeds.
Thousands of homes can now get 500-800 megabits with first generation chips, using 106 GHz. The field results confirm the models used by Rami and the other members of the standards committee. BT's Trevor Linney says the model has proven "pretty much spot on."
- Published: 05 July 2017 05 July 2017
Muscat's Internet be better than Verizon in Manhattan. Omantel began deploying fiber in 2015. Like Chunghwa and Net Cologne, they are now terminating that fiber in the basement and using the existing copper wires for G.fast. Speeds today will be 500-800 megabits. Soon, perhaps next years, the 212 MHz chips will become available and offer something like 1.4 gigabits.
80% of Omanis are urban, many living in apartment buildings that are natural for G.fast. The population is generally young and well-educated, with a majority going to college. 75% of the population use the Internet.