Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom, Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel
Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
- Published: 04 January 2017 04 January 2017
They don't intend to be left behind. AT&T's Tom Starr is one of the key engineers behind G.fast, which was developed based on the plans of British Telecom and AT&T. Their top execs have been enthusiastic about G.fast but carefully didn't commit. January 4, 2017, they announced "Experiments expanding" and that they were "encouraged" by results in Minneapolis. Cable is making strong inroads against U-Verse and destroying AT&T where they never upgraded decade-old DSL. They have to do something. They intend to abandon landlines and go completely wireless to 10M homes. The 12.5M fiber home lines are only about a quarter of their future footprint.
G.fast from basements and rooftops is the natural cost-effective choice and has strong advocates within the company. AT&T spent $billions expanding fiber to 1,000,000 business addresses. Much of that is very close to residential buildings and easy to extend. AT&T is speeding up their fiber home build, now at 4M. The 12.5M target is now moved up to mid 2019. They acquired millions of lines connected by coax to a DirecTV rooftop antenna. G.fast performance over coax is exceptional.
I've reported that T is actively looking for more buildings for WTTR, which likely will migrate from dedicated lines to G.fast.
Donovan promises to extend WTTR to more cities, including some out of district. He wants to be prepared to counter in Verizon territory if Verizon moves ahead on 5G mmWave in San Francisco. AT&T & Verizon are playing a game of chicken here.
McAdam thinks mmWave is a natural move where they have fiber; AT&T's natural strategy is to discourage Verizon from coming in by threatening massive retaliation. Both see Century/Qwest and small regionals as a natural target
Verizon engineers are excellent, but so are AT&T's. They are both dependent on Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung to develop the technology, all of whom are happy to sell to either. If Verizon doesn't back off, T can take the battle to VZ territory very easily. Both also know that Google bought a WTTR company in San Francisco.
Sckipio has a strong position in AT&T, which I'm sure is looking at Broadcom chips as well. AT&T has been burned by single-source contracts and tries to avoid them. That's particularly important as Broadcom staff cuts leave everyone unsure of what Broadcom can deliver. Deutsche Telekom says Broadcom's 35b isn't ready until 2018, two years behind schedule. Broadcom has exceptional engineers but always creates doubt by their policy of secrecy.
Adtran is the preferred equipment vendor and has tailored their DSLAM to AT&T's needs. Nokia/Alcatel and Calix also are hopeful. Perhaps AT&T is being coy as a bargaining tool; G.fast vendors are trying for premium pricing for now.
AT&T has been vocal they need a true gigabit version of G.fast for marketing against cable's gigabit DOCSIS 3.1. Comcast, Cox and some smaller companies are bringing gig cable to over half the U.S. in 2017 and 2018, although the upstream is currently a slow 20-35 megabits. Today's G.fast is best considered 500-800 megabits deployed, but Amendment 2 & Amendment 3 should raise that by the end of the year. T also wants to bust the current 16-24 line limits, which raise costs in all but small buildings.
It's now a three-way race to the first Gigabit LTE in the U.S. Last week Neville Ray of T-Mobile and John Saw of Sprint said they would be first with Gig LTE in the states.
Here's the pr, including a mention of three carrier aggregation.
LAS VEGAS, Jan. 4, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- AT&T* today announced its 5G Evolution plans for 2017 and beyond, and highlighted its other initiatives to expand and enhance ultra-fast internet access for millions of customers.
"Our 5G Evolution plans will pave the way to the next-generation of higher speeds for customers. We're not waiting until the final standards are set to lay the foundation for our evolution to 5G. We're executing now," said John Donovan, chief strategy officer and group president, Technology and Operations. "Data on our mobile network has increased about 250,000% since 2007, and the majority of that traffic is video. 5G's promise of greater speed and overall network performance brings huge opportunities not only for video but in the Internet of Things, 4K video, augmented and virtual reality, smart home and cities, autonomous vehicles and much more."
Our 5G Evolution
The path to 5G encompasses fixed and mobile solutions. We continue to collaborate with more than a dozen global technology companies around 5G standards efforts, and our initial lab trials are already achieving speeds up to 14 gigabits-per-second (Gbps) over a wireless connection.
In lab trials, we've successfully tested a connection with less than 3 milliseconds of latency, which surpasses any current LTE network technology. Latency impacts things like the time between pressing play and seeing a video start to stream or between hitting a web link and seeing a webpage begin to load. The industry expectation for 5G is latency less than 5 milliseconds.
Here's additional color around our 5G Evolution:
- 1 Gbps Speeds in 2017: The continued deployment of our 4G LTE-Advanced network remains essential to laying the foundation for our evolution to 5G. In fact, we expect to begin reaching peak theoretical speeds of up to 1 Gbps at some cell sites in 2017. We will continue to densify our wireless network this year through the deployment of small cells and the use of technologies like carrier aggregation, which increases peak data speeds. We're currently deploying three-way carrier aggregation in select areas, and plan to introduce four-way carrier aggregation as well as LTE-License Assisted Access (LAA) this year.
- 5G Video Trial with DIRECTV NOW: In the first half of 2017, we plan to conduct a trial in Austin where residential customers can stream DIRECTV NOW video service over a fixed wireless 5G connection. As part of this trial, we'll also test additional next-generation entertainment services over fixed 5G connections. The trial will include multiple sites and devices, and we expect to further advance our 5G learnings – especially in how fixed wireless mmWave technology handles heavy video traffic. And over time, the reach of our 5G deployments will be enhanced even more as customers discover new, innovative mobile-first video services.
- First 5G Business Customer Trial: Last fall, we launched what we believe to be the industry's first 5G business customer trial in Austin with Intel and Ericsson using millimeter wave (mmWave) technology, which can deliver multi-gigabit speeds using an unlicensed band of spectrum. We trialed several video streaming and conferencing experiences, and saw upload and download speeds around 1 Gbps during the first phase of the trial.
- Additional 5G Trials: We recently announced plans to team up with Qualcomm Technologies and Ericsson for mobile and fixed wireless trials in the second half of 2017. These trials are significant because they will be our first trials to use what we expect to be based upon the 5G New Radio specification being developed by the industry technology standards group 3GPP. Industry standards are important to enabling wide-scale 5G commercialization. The trials will test both mobile and fixed wireless solutions operating in mmWave spectrum accelerating commercial deployments in the 28Ghz and 39Ghz bands. They will showcase new 5G radio mmWave technologies for increasing network capacity while achieving multi-gigabit data rates.
AT&T Fiber Update
Today, we're marketing a 1 gigabit connection** on our 100% fiber network to nearly 4 million locations across 46 metros nationwide. More than 650,000 of these locations include apartments and condo units. We have the largest fiber network across the 21 states where we offer home internet service and by mid-2019 we plan to reach at least 12.5 million locations across 67 metro areas with our 100% fiber network.
We are also conducting technology trials over fixed wireless point-to-point mmWave and G.fast technologies to deliver greater speeds and efficiencies within our copper and fiber networks.
- Millimeter Wave Trial Expansion: In October 2016, we announced our multi-dwelling unit (MDU) fixed wireless point-to-point mmWave trial in Minneapolis. This gives us the potential to reach a new customer base outside of our traditional 21 state wireline service area. We're also exploring additional markets for trial locations.
- G.fast Experiments Expanding: G.fast technology enables us to bring the speed of fiber to existing copper lines that already exist in many locations. We're encouraged by the results of our G.fast trial taking place at another MDU in the Minneapolis area. In fact, we're gearing up to offer G.fast to more locations, primarily MDUs, within our 21 state wireline footprint in 2017.
Rural Broadband Efforts
There are still many homes in the U.S. – especially in rural areas – that have slow or no internet connectivity. In 2016, we began trialing Fixed Wireless Internet (FWI) service in several states. We plan to begin offering FWI in mid-2017 in areas where we accepted FCC Connect America Fund Phase II (CAF II) support. We expect to reach more than 400,000 locations by the end of 2017 across the 18 states where we accepted CAF II funds, most of which will get internet access for the first time. By the end of 2020, we plan to reach 1.1 million locations in those 18 states.
Project AirGig Progressing
In September 2016, we unveiled Project AirGig, a transformative technology from AT&T Labs that could one day deliver low-cost, multi-gigabit wireless internet speeds over power lines.
Project AirGig is one of the most ambitious and inventive projects in AT&T Labs history. We now have more than 200 patents and patent applications for Project AirGig and we plan to begin field trials in 2017.
Project AirGig has the potential to be a win for our customers and a win for the electric utility companies. Collaborations between AT&T and utility companies could enable and expand a variety of smart-grid applications such as early detection of line integrity issues and help with proactive line maintenance.