Gfast map

gfast map copy


In 2016, looked very promising.
Thousands worked at developing and deploying.
It wasn't enough. 
Most carriers are investing
in fiber or 5G instead.


Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Blue: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

10-Downing-1805%-10% disparity between ECI & Huawei. Tests in December show Huawei VDSL DSLAMs in Britain have a mean download speed of 32.6 Mbps. ECI DSLAMs measure 30.5 Mbps. The chart below, by Andrew Ferguson of ThinkBroadband, has a series of readings over time that are fairly consistent. Ferguson notes, "Huawei has been slightly ahead since July 2016 after years of being neck and neck." He goes on to speculate the difference may be due to the implementation of G.INP, a very fast error correction method. Broadcom introduced G.INP years ago with some fanfare, but the results were very modest. I had heard things had improved, so this data doesn't surprise me. Andrew writes me he will also be watching the lower target noise margins  BT is testing. They now use 6dB but will be testing 3, 4, 5dB. These are log scales, so even a few dB makes a difference. Lab tests suggest a significant speed increase.

VDSL is now a fairly mature technology, especially the unvectored variety BT is using. or 35b are newer, so discrepancies are more likely. VDSL manufacturers who had inferior products should have fixed things by now. Most vendors spend their development dollars on new products, so I was pleasantly surprised to see Huawei continues to improve the product.

At Huawei's Tokyo Broadband Forum, I was amazed at the range of their new products. Their research budget is ~$10B and increasing. That's more than their two closest rivals, Nokia and Ericsson, combined. They seem to be spending the money wisely.

Besides the large dataset, Ferguson looks for possible other explanations (confounding variables.) That should be basic for any analysis and earns him extra credibility. 

Speed test Comparison for VDSL2 tests on ECI and Huawei cabinets
DateMedian Download
Mean Download
Median Download
Mean Download
Dec 2016 27.8 30.5 31.4 32.6
Nov 2016 28 30.5 31.3 32.5
Oct 2016 27.5 30.1 30.8 31.9
Sep 2016 27.2 29.5 30.2 31.4
Aug 2016 27.7 30.2 30.4 31.7
Jul 2016 28.7 31.2 31 32.2
Jun 2016 28.6 30.5 30.6 31.5
May 2016 28.2 30 30.5 31.3
Apr 2016 27.8 29.6 29.7 30.5
Mar 2016 27 28.7 28.9 29.8
Feb 2016 27 28.9 29.3 30.2
Jan 2016 27.1 28.8 29.1 29.9
Dec 2015 27.5 29 29.1 29.8
Nov 2015 27.4 29 28.9 29.9
Oct 2015 26.1 27.3 26.6 27.5
Sep 2015 26.3 27.5 26.5