Gfast map

gfast map copy

 

Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Blue: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

Queen NefertitiOfficially mum as they seek government money. In the 2/3rds of Germany that can get cable, DT has been falling behind for years. Mike Fries of Liberty has aggressive plans to expand the cable footprint; LGI's expansion in England and Germany is the largest new wireline network building in Europe. City networks in Munich and Cologne are also upgrading rapidly. 

DT is carefully not discussing their G.fast plans as they negotiate with the government for billions in subsidies for vectoring. The 20% of Germany without cable or DT upgrade plans has $4B in subsidies already allocated. DT wants more money, but doesn't want to build a robust network where they have a near-monopoly.

DT has massive unused wireless capacity in rural areas, as do telcos everywhere. (Rarely does a telco see rural demand over about 40% of what their spectrum could support. They often don't even use some of their carriers.) They are the world leaders in DSL+ LTE routers, with hundreds of thousands in the field. DSL handles most of the load, with the router drawing on the LTE network when a customer wants more than the available ?50 megabits on the DSL line. LTE is routinely 300 megabits, with much of the world going to "Gig LTE" quickly. Huawei tells me they expect to test 2 gigabit LTE in London in 2018. With 5G approaching, DT can have all the wireless capacity they need. 

For now, DT is installing vectored VDSL. Once they received government permission to throw competitors off the network, they lowered the target speed from 100 megabits to 50 megabits. They intend to upgrade some of those lines to 35b but don't expect that to be ready until the second half of 2018. 35b delivers 200 megabits pretty well in the lab, but 

Image by Philip Pikart