Gfast map

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Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Blue: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

240px Visualisation 1 million.svgAlam Tamboli of Dell'Oro reports ~891,500 ports shipped by the end of Q1, which implies over 1M in Q2. The 2018 year over year growth looks to be 80%.  He also expects an annual run rate of over $150M/year by the first quarter of 2019, plus the cpes. That's good news for a segment that has been exceedingly disappointing. That may be because telcos are waiting for the new chips with a nominal speed up to two gigabits.

Adtran also has encouraging G.fast news. Australia is ready to take substantial volumes. AT&T finally appears ready to use G.fast in district, having solved the software integration problems.

Dell'Oro separately notes that wireless base stations sold well in Q1. That's consistent with the well-known buidup of Verizon's 5G mmWave network, soon to turn on. They expect an actual decline in service provider switches and routers in 2018, as prices go down faster than traffic volumes go up.

Dell'Oro shares with me their actual reports on the understanding I mostly use them for background and limit how much I publish. That allows me to confirm the quality of their work. I work closely with many of the same companies and primary sources. Tamboli and Pongratz are consistently on target. 

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – May 14, 2018 – According to a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT industries, the Mobile Infrastructure market recorded solid first quarter declining at a low-single digit pace enabled by robust transceiver base station (BTS) and RF carrier shipment growth. Combined small cell and macro base station shipments increased approximately 40 percent in unit terms.

“The results in the quarter were encouraging and lend support to our previously communicated thesis that market conditions are set to improve in 2018,” said Stefan Pongratz, Senior Director with Dell’Oro Group. “In contrast with previous technology shifts, investments in LTE have remained fairly elevated, even after the macro coverage peak. The depth of the technology roadmap, coupled with the increased use of video following the onset of ‘unlimited’ data plans, is stimulating operators to add RF carriers and capacity on both the macro and small cell layers,” continued Pongratz.

Vendor ranking positions remained unchanged in the quarter – in rank order, Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia accounted for more than 80 percent of the overall RAN market. While Huawei remains the number 1 vendor both from a shipment and revenue perspective, the gap between Huawei and Ericsson continued to narrow in the quarter, reflecting to some degree the state of network investments in the U.S. and China. The gap between the two vendors from a revenue perspective narrowed by approximately 3 share points from 1Q16 to 1Q18.

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – June 7, 2018 – According to a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT industries, the Service Provider Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch market contracted year-over-year to its lowest level in five years in the first quarter of 2018.  The quarterly contraction sets the stage for the first annual market decline since 2012 as telecom and cloud service providers reduce spending on IP infrastructure.

“Over the past two years, the Asia-Pacific region has been a major growth engine for the router market, but in 1Q18, driven in part by saturation in the China telecom market, router demand experienced a sharp decline,” said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group.  “The weaker China market, combined with price reductions and network architecture evolution in North America, gives us a recipe for a market pull-back in 2018,” added Umeda.

Additional highlights from the 1Q18 Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch Quarterly Report:

  • Despite the market’s revenue contraction, 100 Gigabit Ethernet port shipments grew more than 35% year-over-year.
  • Cisco was the top ranked vendor in 1Q18, followed by Huawei, Nokia, and Juniper. These four vendors accounted for more than 90 percent of the market revenue in 1Q18.