Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom, Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel
Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
- Published: 22 July 2018 22 July 2018
Alam Tamboli of Dell'Oro reports ~891,500 ports shipped by the end of Q1, which implies over 1M in Q2. The 2018 year over year growth looks to be 80%. He also expects an annual run rate of over $150M/year by the first quarter of 2019, plus the cpes. That's good news for a segment that has been exceedingly disappointing. That may be because telcos are waiting for the new chips with a nominal speed up to two gigabits.
Adtran also has encouraging G.fast news. Australia is ready to take substantial volumes. AT&T finally appears ready to use G.fast in district, having solved the software integration problems.
Dell'Oro separately notes that wireless base stations sold well in Q1. That's consistent with the well-known buidup of Verizon's 5G mmWave network, soon to turn on. They expect an actual decline in service provider switches and routers in 2018, as prices go down faster than traffic volumes go up.
- Published: 10 July 2018 10 July 2018
Years late, DT is now satisfied 35G VDSL systems are working well enough to start selling it to customers. In a rare move, DT is also promising a minimum speed of 100 megabits. This is the same service as KPN is advertising as 200 megabits although DT's network probably has longer loops. Based on public information about DT's network, many will not achieve 250 megabits.
35b VDSL is easy to explain. It the same thing as the popular 17b VDSL but uses 35 MHz of spectrum. Alcatel, Broadcom, and others thought the small change meant it would be available in 2016. It's much slower than G.fast, but should work well with DT's existing VDSL.
Something went wrong, apparently with the vectoring software.
- Published: 26 June 2018 26 June 2018
Actual connections quite few. The prices remain high at £10-£15 more expensive than the VDSL service. They apparently do not want many to sign up yet as they add new areas and build operating systems.
By March 2019, they intend to have passed 2.2M. That's about 6-9 months behind a schedule that would take them past 10M homes in 2020. That said, they are far ahead of anyone else.
Self-install isn't ready for them. They won't even trial self-install until late this year.
- Published: 21 May 2018 21 May 2018
Vplus, better known to the industry as 35b, uses twice the bandwidth of the 17 MHz VDSL for speeds that can reach 200 megabits downstream and 20 megabits upstream. KPN has 600,000 lines ready for sale, the first substantial deployment announced. Apparently, the wholesale cost of the service is 23 euros + VAT. KPN retail adds 8,90 euro for a total of about 32 euro. Other retailers will have slightly different pricing. (I'm working in Google translate but believe I have this right.)
They are limiting the service to customers within 400 meters although the system is designed for 600-800 meters. I assume that choice is based on the results they are finding with the available equipment. They are using Broadcom chips and requiring the home gateway also to use Broadcom.
Deutsche Telekom has several million lines in place, waiting for the engineering ok to start selling them to customers.
- Published: 08 May 2018 08 May 2018
G.fast sales should accelerate in 2018, with British Telecom, AT&T, and nbn firmly committed. Megachip, an $800M Japanese company agrees and led Sckipio's new funding round. Sckipio is one of the two industry leaders. Even vendors who had been single-sourced on G.fast chips are now designing systems based around non-U.S. chips.
The U.S. confrontation with ZTE & Huawei is worrying Broadcom customers around the world. Trump is unlikely to invoke sanctions against Nokia-Alcatel, but even Donald's friends say he can be unpredictable. The rumor in the industry is that Alcatel DSLAMs were making their way to Iran through middlemen in the Emirates. I've never confirmed that, but Nokia surely has a contingency plan. Dealings with Iran were the key charges against ZTE.
CTO Rami Verbin is one of the key contributors to G.fast design and standards.
- Published: 27 April 2018 27 April 2018
Geoff Burke of Calix writes, "We have A3 solutions in trials at large customers." This is very good news because some customers seem to be waiting for Amendment 3, which doubles spectrum use for speeds up to 2 gigabits. Calix has well over 100 customers, thousands of systems deployed, and tens of thousands of home gateways.
Calix is known for using Sckipio chips, which use dynamic time allocation for higher effective speeds. That allows speeds to often be at 1 gigabit today by devoting more spectrum to either upstream or downstream based on demand.
Analyst Alan Tamboli believes, "Once the higher frequencies (212 MHz) and higher port groupings (i.e., 48-port and 96-port) are successfully tested and trialed, this will change, especially at MDUs."