Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom, Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel
Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
- Published: 10 July 2017 10 July 2017
Carl's epiphany: the box business was going to shrink; software was going to become king; the carriers' traditional revenue would stagnate or worse. More recently, I heard much the same things from AT&T. It's now the common wisdom. Ten years ago, I didn't put all that together and I think few others did.
To decide the right moves, he started with the question "What will Calix's customers need in ten years?" His first conclusion was that the carriers would need to find massive new revenues. That would require extreme flexibility, including a network designed to satisfy new demands rapidly. With revenues flat to down, the carriers would need to cut costs drastically to stay profitable. Inevitably, that would squeeze their suppliers.
Russo decided the answer was agile software that brought carrier products to market quickly and allowed using less expensive standard hardware.
- Published: 10 July 2017 10 July 2017
Alphonzo Samuels of Telkom South Africa has just added G.fast to his very extensive toolkit. Samuels said at BBWF he needed to offer European quality service in some of his regions and also reach vast areas that have no electricity. They have world class tech companies like Ubuntu and Dimension Data and luxury flats in the major cities. Folks like that demand and usually get the best.
Three years ago, Samuels told me he expected to use fiber home, G.fast, and vectoring in different areas. Only fiber home has been announced. They have now demonstrated G.Fast to an office complex in Pinelands and announced a wider deployment later this year. The volume should be substantial; Nokia projects SA will "soon join the top 10 companies worldwide deploying the technology." They've released no estimates of how many and when.
- Published: 09 July 2017 09 July 2017
Rami Verbin of Sckipio has no doubts: Doubling the frequency range will double speeds from today's 500-800 megabits. Soon, perhaps in 2018, apartment buildings will get 1200-1500 megabits from either fiber to the basement or wireless to the rooftop. Close in distribution points, like those announced by Australia's NBN, will also see those speeds.
Thousands of homes can now get 500-800 megabits with first generation chips, using 106 GHz. The field results confirm the models used by Rami and the other members of the standards committee. BT's Trevor Linney says the model has proven "pretty much spot on."
- Published: 05 July 2017 05 July 2017
Muscat's Internet be better than Verizon in Manhattan. Omantel began deploying fiber in 2015. Like Chunghwa and Net Cologne, they are now terminating that fiber in the basement and using the existing copper wires for G.fast. Speeds today will be 500-800 megabits. Soon, perhaps next years, the 212 MHz chips will become available and offer something like 1.4 gigabits.
80% of Omanis are urban, many living in apartment buildings that are natural for G.fast. The population is generally young and well-educated, with a majority going to college. 75% of the population use the Internet.
- Published: 18 June 2017 18 June 2017
96 ports promised and even more sought. Burri of Swisscom confirmed he has a similar unit. Update, 7/10. Huawei has now confirmed they are shipping 96 ports. I had guessed it was Huawei in the original. end update. G.fast was designed for local distribution points serving up to 16 homes, of which British Telecom has about 4M. These are very close to the subscriber. G.fast from local distribution points delivers 500-800 megabits today and well over a gigabit very soon. The BT plans changed, going to the (much fewer) existing cabinets.
Many buildings have more than 16 apartments. Many cabinets have hundreds.
- Published: 16 June 2017 16 June 2017
Officially, it's not G.fast but they aren't stupid. When they run "fibre to your driveway," they will be within 100 meters of most people. That allows 500-800 megabits of G.fast today and over a gigabit as amendments 2 & 3 are delivered next year. Presumably, the final announcement is waiting for a government plan to deal with the over $10B in cost overruns.