Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom, Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel
Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
- Published: 02 August 2017 02 August 2017
Deutsche Telekom and NetCologne have tested it. Adtran thinks they will be able to ship soon, but NetCologne doesn't expect much until next year. Broadcom's Greg Fischer confirms to me, "We entered production with 212 MHz G.Fast devices last quarter and also released production standards compliant iDTA. We’re working with standards groups to assure same with cDTA."
212 MHz should deliver as much as a gig up to about 200 meters.
- Published: 01 August 2017 01 August 2017
Next year, 260,000 lines. Cologne and Munich city nets have long been outclassing DT, especially with fiber deployment. CEO Timo von Lepel gets it, "One day, 100 Mbps will be the lowest data rate available." They have installed 25,000 kilometers of fiber, including to the basements of most substantial buildings. They run VDSL at 50-100 megabits to most apartments, but will rapidly replace that with G.fast.
They plan to use 212 MHz of bandwidth for speeds over 1 gigabit. At Anga Com, they showed download speed of 1.6 gig and upload of 200 megabits with equipment from ZTE. In the picture next to the speed test are Sun Jie of ZTE on the left, von Lepal and Horst Schmitz on the right. They have good reason to smile.
Apparently, ZTE is using Broadcom G.fast chips. They expect the 212 MHz chips to be in limited supply until next year.
- Published: 21 July 2017 21 July 2017
nbn looking to a million lines. Adtran's complete service package and Mosaic SDN prove crucial. As previously reported, Australia's NBN is diversifying beyond an initial dependence on Alcatel. Many of these homes are currently served by a cable network bought by nbn that was so decrepit they are completely replacing it.
nbn CEO BIll Morrow in February wrote, "Operators around the world are excited about technologies like DOCSIS 3.1 and G.fast, which allow Gigabit broadband to be deployed at substantially lower price points and in far less time than it takes to deploy Gigabit services over FTTP – and we will see both of these technologies emerge much more fully in the next few years globally as well as here in Australia."
AT&T and DT say essentially the same thing. Both hope for large G.fast deployments starting in about six months.
- Published: 21 July 2017 21 July 2017
New Germany CEO offered a gigabit on all 4M Rogers cable connections in Canada, his previous company. Despite very high prices, Rogers has returned to growth. 46% of their residential Internet base already take speeds ≥100 Mbps. Now he's moving from Canada to Bonn, replacing Niek Jan van Damme. His new boss, Tim Höttges, has been betting DT's future on the belief most Germans will stick to DT if he builds a network designed for 50 Mbps downloads.
The Rogers figures are a potent argument that 50 Mbps will not satisfy most customers in years to come. The German cablecos have been winning market share for years and cover two-thirds of the country. Those that are still only 200 or 400 Mbps will almost all go to the gig in the next few years because the upgrades are so cheap.
G.fast can easily deliver hundreds of megabits upstream, far more than most cablecos will offer before next decade.
- Published: 20 July 2017 20 July 2017
Demos double frequency G.fast and cDTA with Deutsche Telekom. Adtran only claims "gigabit rates" but the technology is designed for over a gigabit and a half, combined upstream and downstream. I infer from their comments they are ready to ship. They also claim good performance from DTA, rapidly shifting upstream and downstream ratios based on traffic demands.
Sckipio's supplying the chips for cDTA, according to Richard Chirgwin in The Register. With the DTA now working on ordinary twisted pair. Telcos to claim "effective speeds of 500 upstream, 500 downstream." G.fast from fiber to the basement or wireless to the rooftop now outshines gigabit DOCSIS, especially on the upstream. Few cablecos are likely to improve their upstream significantly before Full Duplex is ready next decade. Verizon is heavily advertising their 50/50 & 100/100 Fios speeds because the higher upstream is winning customers.
- Published: 17 July 2017 17 July 2017
The 44 building trial went well and Miller expects G.fast to deploy widely. Century, the $17B telco that swallowed Qwest, has 6M broadband lines. many of which need to be upgraded. He has to replace the older lines despite modestly reduced capex. G.fast is cost effective and hence a natural choice. He didn't give a projection but sounded like he planned to move quickly.
Sean Buckley of Fierce captured Miller's comments at the Calix Analyst meeting. “When I first came to CenturyLink as the VP of architecture and strategy, my main call was more tied to service velocity,” Miller said. “Our competition of the future is not a telecom company, but rather the Amazon, Facebooks and Hulus of the world, so we had this one time to transform to a software platform and the first to key projects are G.fast and NG-PON2.”