In 2016, G.fast looked very promising.
But only BT & Australia's nbn remain
Dark Blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom, Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel
Mid Blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
- Published: 16 December 2017 16 December 2017
50,000 refunds as complaints go up 160%. Much of the Australian network is second-rate. Belgacom got 80 megabits down to almost everyone. Most could get over 100 meg. That confirmed the lab tests and theory. (Chart from ASSIA.) Other telcos told me similar.
When Malcolm Turnbull, now Prime Minister, asked me whether vectoring could deliver 100 megabits, I said yes. So I bear a small share of the responsibility for millions of Australians having a second-rate Internet for the next decade. (He heard the same from many others.)
I (apparently) made an inaccurate assumption: that NBN would build the network to the well-known standards for vectoring. Vectoring generally delivers 100 megabits 500 meters and more than 50 megabits 800 meters. The figures below from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission show ~50% are not getting the 100 megabits paid for and more than a quarter get less than half the speed. 3% do not even receive 25 megabits.
- Published: 26 November 2017 26 November 2017
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds G.fast goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both G.fast & vectored DSL.
The causes include bridge taps, paper insulation, and landlord-installed cheap wiring. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.
Rami's solution is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips.
- Published: 25 November 2017 25 November 2017
"The telecommunications duopoly is about to end,” President Duterte promises. expecting the competition to improve services and lower prices. He invited the Chinese to be the third player in the Phillippines in a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.
Incumbent PLDT is responding by connecting 100 buildings and 35b Super-vectoring and some other places. PLDT is buying the gear from Huawei. ZTE had little chance at the order after the $100M bribery a few years back.
Foreign-owned PLDT has a near monopoly on the Philippine Internet (85%) and minimal regulation. As you can see in the chart at left, their capex has been going down despite a dismal Philippine Internet. Filipinos have the slowest Internet in Asia, as you can see in the chart below from Akamai.
- Published: 20 November 2017 20 November 2017
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021. Verizon is serious about 5G millimeter wave, with a shared capacity of 5 gigabits. (Rarely over 1 gig.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.
AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits.
- Published: 15 November 2017 15 November 2017
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. This was confirmed to me by Achim Sawall of Golem.de, a reporter I respect..
35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. The government is calling for gigabit fiber, but DT has financial limits that make that tough.
The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on.
- Published: 29 October 2017 29 October 2017