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Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

The technology available earlier but Dell'Oro analyst thinks telcos will move slowly.  Adtran, Broadcom, Huawei, Sckipio, & ZTE are demonstrating the next generation of G.fast gear, which presumably will be generally available in early 2018. AT&T, BT, Century, and others have plans to move aggressively, but Tamboli believes the large volume will be in 2019.

'Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018," he believes. "Furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or larger port units"

Alam and I agree there will be a large uptake of G.fast. It makes economic sense and we've heard from major companies about definite plans. BT is set for ten million lines and a dozen others have significant builds coming. 

He added in an email, "I think once key decisions around reverse power are finalized to a point where power levels are sufficiently high enough to actually power the equipment, and low enough that you don’t need a specialized technician to install it, things will start to take off there too."

Neither of us can give you a firm answer about how much will be 2018, 2019, or even 2020. The companies, other than BT, haven't made detailed commitments. Most have plans in their capital budget, subject to change when they see results from the field. Gear is still coming out of the lab. Key components remain unproven. Tamboli sees Everyone is tentative.

We'll all be watching.

In the second release below, Dell'Oro projects a drop in sales of core routers and overall approximately flat sales for telco/cable routing gear, continuing a trend of several years. Routers, switches, and similar gear are the most significant upgrade cost for most carriers as service requires higher capacities. 

That implies the growth in traffic is not increasing costs for carriers because the cost per bit is declining at a similar rate. 

see also 
Broadcom's 212 MHz Exists

1.6 Gig 212 MHz ZTE/NetCologne Demo

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran

BT's Trevor Linney "A 48 Port Vectoring Engine is Working in Our Labs."

 

G.FAST REVENUE FORECAST TO GROW ALMOST 600 PERCENT IN 2019, ACCORDING TO DELL’ORO GROUP

2019 Will Be the Year of G.fast

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – August 07, 2017 – According to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT industries, G.fast revenue growth is forecast to grow almost 600 percent in 2019 as operators complete testing and trialing G.fast amendment 3 chipsets and systems. We believe 2019 will be the year of G.fast, significantly impacting the future worldwide Broadband Access market, which includes PON, DSL and Cable.

“G.fast is off to a slow start so far but we think it will ramp in 2019,” said Alam Tamboli, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018. Furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or larger port units to be tested more thoroughly. Momentum will continue through at least the rest of our forecast horizon as we anticipate that G.fast revenue will account for over a third of the overall DSL market by 2021,” Tamboli added.

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – August 08, 2017 – According to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT industries, worldwide demand for Edge Routers and Carrier Ethernet Switches are forecast to drive modest growth for the overall Service Provider (SP) & Carrier Ethernet Switch market through 2021. The SP Core Router market is expected to decline slightly over the same time period.

“In the near term, operators will increase capacity of their IP router and switch networks to accommodate traffic from fixed broadband access networks,” said Alam Tamboli, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “However, in 2019, we will see increased demand for mobile backhaul networks, as operators actively build out their 5G networks. Higher capacities and topology changes required for 5G networks will lead to an upgrade cycle of today’s mobile backhaul networks,” Tamboli explained.

Highlights from the Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • The SP Core Router market continue to grow in 2017 as demand in China drives the market. Starting in 2018, we expect a shrinking market as projects in China are completed and IP traffic patterns continue to shift to more localized data sources.
  • 100 GE port shipments will experience double-digit growth every year through our forecast period. 400 GE port shipments are expected to begin in 2019.


212 GHz and cDTA are soon shipping from Adtran. True gigabit is here. Sales takeoff is almost in sight, probably Q1 2018.
Australia confirms 1M, AT&T is ready to ramp, DT finally is moving. Omantel and Telkom South Africa are now on the map. Almost all telcos are now choosing G.fast for large buildings when they don't go FTTH. MNet Cologne and Chunghwa Taiwan have changed from fiber all the way to G.fast in the basement.

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran http://bit.ly/GF212cDTA
Frank Miller of Century: G.fast Will be Important to Us http://bit.ly/GFCentury

Carl Russo: Since 2007, I've Been Turning Calix Into a Software Company http://bit.ly/CalixSDN

Adtran Chosen for Australia nbn Fiber to the curb. http://bit.ly/GFnabAus

nbn looking to a million lines. This one is big. Adtran is on a roll, with DT & AT&T also looking good for 2018.

1,400,000,000 In The Works. 1.4 Gigabits http://bit.ly/GF14Gig
South Africa & Connecticut Go Nokia http://bit.ly/SouthAF

Omantel: 90% Fiber & G.fast http://bit.ly/Omantel

 

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