spacer 2Telebyte Gfast Testing Guide 320

Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

The technology available earlier but Dell'Oro analyst thinks telcos will move slowly.  Adtran, Broadcom, Huawei, Sckipio, & ZTE are demonstrating the next generation of G.fast gear, which presumably will be generally available in early 2018. AT&T, BT, Century, and others have plans to move aggressively, but Tamboli believes the large volume will be in 2019.

'Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018," he believes. "Furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or larger port units"

Alam and I agree there will be a large uptake of G.fast. It makes economic sense and we've heard from major companies about definite plans. BT is set for ten million lines and a dozen others have significant builds coming. 

He added in an email, "I think once key decisions around reverse power are finalized to a point where power levels are sufficiently high enough to actually power the equipment, and low enough that you don’t need a specialized technician to install it, things will start to take off there too."

Neither of us can give you a firm answer about how much will be 2018, 2019, or even 2020. The companies, other than BT, haven't made detailed commitments. Most have plans in their capital budget, subject to change when they see results from the field. Gear is still coming out of the lab. Key components remain unproven. Tamboli sees Everyone is tentative.

We'll all be watching.

In the second release below, Dell'Oro projects a drop in sales of core routers and overall approximately flat sales for telco/cable routing gear, continuing a trend of several years. Routers, switches, and similar gear are the most significant upgrade cost for most carriers as service requires higher capacities. 

That implies the growth in traffic is not increasing costs for carriers because the cost per bit is declining at a similar rate. 

see also 
Broadcom's 212 MHz Exists

1.6 Gig 212 MHz ZTE/NetCologne Demo

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran

BT's Trevor Linney "A 48 Port Vectoring Engine is Working in Our Labs."

 

G.FAST REVENUE FORECAST TO GROW ALMOST 600 PERCENT IN 2019, ACCORDING TO DELL’ORO GROUP

2019 Will Be the Year of G.fast

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – August 07, 2017 – According to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT industries, G.fast revenue growth is forecast to grow almost 600 percent in 2019 as operators complete testing and trialing G.fast amendment 3 chipsets and systems. We believe 2019 will be the year of G.fast, significantly impacting the future worldwide Broadband Access market, which includes PON, DSL and Cable.

“G.fast is off to a slow start so far but we think it will ramp in 2019,” said Alam Tamboli, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018. Furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or larger port units to be tested more thoroughly. Momentum will continue through at least the rest of our forecast horizon as we anticipate that G.fast revenue will account for over a third of the overall DSL market by 2021,” Tamboli added.

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – August 08, 2017 – According to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT industries, worldwide demand for Edge Routers and Carrier Ethernet Switches are forecast to drive modest growth for the overall Service Provider (SP) & Carrier Ethernet Switch market through 2021. The SP Core Router market is expected to decline slightly over the same time period.

“In the near term, operators will increase capacity of their IP router and switch networks to accommodate traffic from fixed broadband access networks,” said Alam Tamboli, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “However, in 2019, we will see increased demand for mobile backhaul networks, as operators actively build out their 5G networks. Higher capacities and topology changes required for 5G networks will lead to an upgrade cycle of today’s mobile backhaul networks,” Tamboli explained.

Highlights from the Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • The SP Core Router market continue to grow in 2017 as demand in China drives the market. Starting in 2018, we expect a shrinking market as projects in China are completed and IP traffic patterns continue to shift to more localized data sources.
  • 100 GE port shipments will experience double-digit growth every year through our forecast period. 400 GE port shipments are expected to begin in 2019.

The Site for gfast 230
 

G.fast News
A remarkable 400 people attended the very strong Broadband Forum BASE events in Berlin and Las Vegas. Trevor confirmed BT would pass the million this year. Cioffi projected “Waveguide DSL” could carry 10 gigabits a kilometer as well as a terabit 100 meters. Werner sees a 4X improvement in upstream with cDTA. Much more in next issue.

Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ
Deutsche Telekom is finally realizing that 50 megabit DSL won't make it against gigabit cable. VP Franz Seiser is blunt. "We must change radically, become disruptive and, above all, throw away things," he proclaims at BBWF. After years of DT insisting 50 megabits is plenty, we now hear "it is about Gigabit products" from DT's Robert Soukup.  
    A lucky building in Frankfurt will receive 500+ megabit service as ultra-conservative Deutsche Telekom experiments with G.fast. Soukup told BBWF, "We're going to have a field test in Frankfurt with G.fast and Fiber To The Building (FTTB.) We will know by the end of the year if this is the right way to go." Hint to Soukup: Yes it is. G.fast is working well at a dozen telcos I;ve talked to.
     The details are surprising. DT is going for CORD, Open Source, Calix, and Radisys. http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test http://bit.ly/Calix16
A telco tells me they are getting impressive early results from the Calix 48 port DSLAM with the new Sckipio 212 MHz chips. There still is work to do but this is encouraging. 
    Carriers want DSLAMs with more than 16 ports to reduce the deployment costs from the basement or larger field cabinets. Speed matters to the marketing side of the company; AT&T's CEO believes he must offer a true gigabit to match cable. (They've been getting ~750 megabits with first generation chips. http://bit.ly/Calix16

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia http://bit.ly/NetcommRP
Australia is connecting 1M homes to G.fast, some with a Netcomm distribution point mini-DSLAM. It's a small unit designed for pole or pit mounting. It's waterproof, pressure proof, and temperature resistant. Their matching home modem is bittorrent friendly, with two USB ports for a hard drive dedicated to sharing.
     A reverse power unit at the customer, the NDD-0100-01, can save the cost of bringing power to the DSLAM. They don't expect many orders until the second half of 2018, as nbn is waiting for the second generation chips. Netcomm demonstrated RP with BT Openreach in August. http://bit.ly/NetcommRP

*** Sckipio's Three advances are taking G.fast to the next level.http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus http://bit.ly/GFAussie
No news here. In September, 2015, I reported Australia's nbn Going G.fast. This June. I reported the million home fiber to the curb (kerb?) was beginning. Unfortunately, they are no closer to figuring out where to find the needed $10B to $20B to cover the cost overruns. Instead, the parties are battling in Parliament about who is to blame. http://bit.ly/GFAussie

2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabitshttp://bit.ly/twobonded
Sckipio at BBWF is demonstrating 3 gigabits down, nearly a gigabit up, over two phone lines, bonded. Twice the bandwidth (212 MHz instead of 106 MHz) times two lines is fast. Sckipio does great demos; at CES, they showed G.fast first generation chips delivering almost 1 gig upstream.
    “Sckipio is pushing Gfast to astonishing speeds with production silicon,” CEO David Baum proclaims. Calix is using the SCK23000 chipset in their 48 port gig+ DSLAM at the show. http://bit.ly/twobonded

Read more ...