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Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Pink: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

The technology available earlier but Dell'Oro analyst thinks telcos will move slowly.  Adtran, Broadcom, Huawei, Sckipio, & ZTE are demonstrating the next generation of G.fast gear, which presumably will be generally available in early 2018. AT&T, BT, Century, and others have plans to move aggressively, but Tamboli believes the large volume will be in 2019.

'Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018," he believes. "Furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or larger port units"

Alam and I agree there will be a large uptake of G.fast. It makes economic sense and we've heard from major companies about definite plans. BT is set for ten million lines and a dozen others have significant builds coming. 

He added in an email, "I think once key decisions around reverse power are finalized to a point where power levels are sufficiently high enough to actually power the equipment, and low enough that you don’t need a specialized technician to install it, things will start to take off there too."

Neither of us can give you a firm answer about how much will be 2018, 2019, or even 2020. The companies, other than BT, haven't made detailed commitments. Most have plans in their capital budget, subject to change when they see results from the field. Gear is still coming out of the lab. Key components remain unproven. Tamboli sees Everyone is tentative.

We'll all be watching.

In the second release below, Dell'Oro projects a drop in sales of core routers and overall approximately flat sales for telco/cable routing gear, continuing a trend of several years. Routers, switches, and similar gear are the most significant upgrade cost for most carriers as service requires higher capacities. 

That implies the growth in traffic is not increasing costs for carriers because the cost per bit is declining at a similar rate. 

see also 
Broadcom's 212 MHz Exists

1.6 Gig 212 MHz ZTE/NetCologne Demo

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran

BT's Trevor Linney "A 48 Port Vectoring Engine is Working in Our Labs."

 

G.FAST REVENUE FORECAST TO GROW ALMOST 600 PERCENT IN 2019, ACCORDING TO DELL’ORO GROUP

2019 Will Be the Year of G.fast

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – August 07, 2017 – According to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT industries, G.fast revenue growth is forecast to grow almost 600 percent in 2019 as operators complete testing and trialing G.fast amendment 3 chipsets and systems. We believe 2019 will be the year of G.fast, significantly impacting the future worldwide Broadband Access market, which includes PON, DSL and Cable.

“G.fast is off to a slow start so far but we think it will ramp in 2019,” said Alam Tamboli, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018. Furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or larger port units to be tested more thoroughly. Momentum will continue through at least the rest of our forecast horizon as we anticipate that G.fast revenue will account for over a third of the overall DSL market by 2021,” Tamboli added.

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – August 08, 2017 – According to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT industries, worldwide demand for Edge Routers and Carrier Ethernet Switches are forecast to drive modest growth for the overall Service Provider (SP) & Carrier Ethernet Switch market through 2021. The SP Core Router market is expected to decline slightly over the same time period.

“In the near term, operators will increase capacity of their IP router and switch networks to accommodate traffic from fixed broadband access networks,” said Alam Tamboli, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “However, in 2019, we will see increased demand for mobile backhaul networks, as operators actively build out their 5G networks. Higher capacities and topology changes required for 5G networks will lead to an upgrade cycle of today’s mobile backhaul networks,” Tamboli explained.

Highlights from the Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • The SP Core Router market continue to grow in 2017 as demand in China drives the market. Starting in 2018, we expect a shrinking market as projects in China are completed and IP traffic patterns continue to shift to more localized data sources.
  • 100 GE port shipments will experience double-digit growth every year through our forecast period. 400 GE port shipments are expected to begin in 2019.

The Site for gfast 230
 

G.fast News

I’m still working through remarkable presentations from the Broadband Forum events. Michael Weissman, Bernd Hesse and team did a remarkable job choosing the speakers. http://bit.ly/BBFBASE

Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019 http://bit.ly/35blater
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. 35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. 

The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on. Broadcom in 2015 said 35b was in "production" in the press release below. Alcatel in early 2016 said to expect complete systems very soon. "35g is very similar to 17a so there should be little delay."

Broadcom's problems are leading major telcos and vendors to have a plan B, using Sckipio G.fast. DT itself is planning extensive G.fast deployments in 2019, mostly in apartment buildings. http://bit.ly/35blater

Gigabit 100 Meters - Unless the Wires are Lousy http://bit.ly/gflousy
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds G.fast goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. 

His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both G.fast & vectored DSL. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.

Rami's solution to reach the gigabit is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips. Verbin made some additional points:

  • 4 gigabits is possible by bonding two decent 2 gigabit lines.
  • Even in a service from remote cabinets, ~25% are close enough to get a full gigabit."
  • cDTA and iDTA are practical ways to deliver much higher upstream by switching some bandwidth from downstream to upstream only when needed.
  • 35B will probably be similar but Deutsche Telecom doesn't expect to deploy until 2019. http://bit.ly/gflousy

AT&T Wants Coax 2-5 Gigabit G.fast. Very Soon. http://bit.ly/ATTCoax
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.

AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits. The ITU standards group has been aiming for 2019-2020 for G.mgfast, too slow for AT&T's marketers. David Titus wants a high-speed standard for coax "early in 2018." He believes that is "doable."http://bit.ly/ATTCoax

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