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Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Pink: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

Kathleen Dyer NBNnbn looking to a million lines. Adtran's complete service package and Mosaic SDN prove crucial. As previously reported, Australia's NBN is diversifying beyond an initial dependence on Alcatel. Many of these homes are currently served by a cable network bought by nbn that was so decrepit they are completely replacing it.

nbn CEO BIll Morrow in February wrote, "Operators around the world are excited about technologies like DOCSIS 3.1 and G.fast, which allow Gigabit broadband to be deployed at substantially lower price points and in far less time than it takes to deploy Gigabit services over FTTP – and we will see both of these technologies emerge much more fully in the next few years globally as well as here in Australia."

AT&T and DT say essentially the same thing. Both hope for large G.fast deployments starting in about six months.

Gigabit+ 212 GHz is becoming available from Adtran and 96 port vectoring from Huawei. BT, Swisscom, and others have been sharing their experience and convincing CTOs around the world the remaining problems are being solved. 

Australia's highest speed offerings are severely held back by brutally overpriced domestic and international backhaul. Then Minister Stephen Conroy explained to me the high domestic charges (CVC.) "It is a political necessity. We had to make sure the basic service on the NBN was no more expensive than cheap DSL service. There was no other way to cover the costs."

The nbn passed Parliament by a single vote, so Conroy's remarks seem accurate. He knew the CVC and the tariffs on higher speeds were unrelated to costs. His successor Malcolm Turnbull said essentially the same thing to me.

Australia's government policy under both parties has sought a robust Internet for all. My opinion is that nbn by default should give everyone the speeds it was designed for, 100 megabits to 1 gigabit. The difference in opex is minimal and the capex has already been spent. That would be great for everyone but somehow the current revenue needs to be recovered. One possibility is to make explicit the universal service charge built into the nbn cost structure.

Building gigabit networks doesn't pay off if the pricing drives most customers to lower tiers. 

 

 

nbn and ADTRAN Ink Contract to Advance Broadband Access in Australia

MELBOURNE, Australia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jul. 18, 2017-- ADTRAN®, Inc., (NASDAQ:ADTN), a leading provider of next-generation open networking solutions, today announced the signing of a supply agreement to advance high-speed broadband access to the citizens of Australia. The executed supply agreement covers software, hardware and services, which includes commitments from both companies to support the ongoing nationwide network rollout.

To date, a number of key milestones have already been completed and both companies successfully completed a GPON network interoperability proof-of-concept program of work. In addition, ADTRAN IT specialists have been working in a collaborative, agile development process with nbn’s IT team to implement ADTRAN’s standards-based, multi-vendor DPU management solution, utilizing an open microservices architecture.

nbn’s Chief Network Deployment Officer, Kathrine Dyer said: “The rollout of the nbn™ network is one of the most complex and ambitious telecommunications projects to be undertaken in any market around the world. We look forward to working with ADTRAN on bringing the nbn™ network into reality including working together on our world leading Fibre-to-the-Curb (FTTC) network that is set to serve more than one million homes and businesses around the country by 2020.”

ADTRAN’s Software-Defined Access (SD-Access) solutions combine modern web-scale technology with open-source platforms to facilitate rapid innovation in multi-technology, multi-vendor environments. SD-Access unlocks control and management functions from the underlying network elements, enabling a more flexible, agile services delivery framework. This service agility stems from an open microservices architecture that allows network operations and IT development teams to align.

“Rolling out new technologies can be a complicated and costly endeavor for network service providers, especially in multi-vendor environments,” said Jay Wilson, ADTRAN SVP for Technology and Strategy. “ADTRAN’s highly programmable SD-Access solutions utilize an open microservices architecture that support the adoption of network automation that reduces service provisioning times, human error and IT complexity, while enabling the desirable customer self-service capabilities.”

About nbn

nbn is building a new and upgraded, fast wholesale broadband network to enable communities across Australia to access fast broadband from their retail service provider. Our goal is to connect eight million homes and businesses by 2020. The rollout of the nbn™ access network sets the scene for the biggest transformation to Australia’s telecommunications industry involving retail service provider network upgrades and the establishment of a network of networks to bring fast broadband to all Australians.

About ADTRAN

ADTRAN, Inc. is a leading global provider of networking and communications equipment. ADTRAN’s products enable voice, data, video and Internet communications across a variety of network infrastructures. ADTRAN solutions are currently in use by service providers, private enterprises, government organizations, and millions of individual users worldwide. For more information, please visit www.adtran.com.

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G.fast News

I’m still working through remarkable presentations from the Broadband Forum events. Michael Weissman, Bernd Hesse and team did a remarkable job choosing the speakers. http://bit.ly/BBFBASE

Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019 http://bit.ly/35blater
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. 35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. 

The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on. Broadcom in 2015 said 35b was in "production" in the press release below. Alcatel in early 2016 said to expect complete systems very soon. "35g is very similar to 17a so there should be little delay."

Broadcom's problems are leading major telcos and vendors to have a plan B, using Sckipio G.fast. DT itself is planning extensive G.fast deployments in 2019, mostly in apartment buildings. http://bit.ly/35blater

Gigabit 100 Meters - Unless the Wires are Lousy http://bit.ly/gflousy
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds G.fast goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. 

His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both G.fast & vectored DSL. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.

Rami's solution to reach the gigabit is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips. Verbin made some additional points:

  • 4 gigabits is possible by bonding two decent 2 gigabit lines.
  • Even in a service from remote cabinets, ~25% are close enough to get a full gigabit."
  • cDTA and iDTA are practical ways to deliver much higher upstream by switching some bandwidth from downstream to upstream only when needed.
  • 35B will probably be similar but Deutsche Telecom doesn't expect to deploy until 2019. http://bit.ly/gflousy

AT&T Wants Coax 2-5 Gigabit G.fast. Very Soon. http://bit.ly/ATTCoax
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.

AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits. The ITU standards group has been aiming for 2019-2020 for G.mgfast, too slow for AT&T's marketers. David Titus wants a high-speed standard for coax "early in 2018." He believes that is "doable."http://bit.ly/ATTCoax

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