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Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Green: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, 

Gigabit DirkNew Germany CEO offered a gigabit on all 4M Rogers cable connections in Canada, his previous company. Despite very high prices, Rogers has returned to growth. 46% of their residential Internet base already take speeds ≥100 Mbps. Now he's moving from Canada to Bonn, replacing Niek Jan van Damme. His new boss, Tim Höttges, has been betting DT's future on the belief most Germans will stick to DT if he builds a network designed for 50 Mbps downloads. 

The Rogers figures are a potent argument that 50 Mbps will not satisfy most customers in years to come. The German cablecos have been winning market share for years and cover two-thirds of the country. Those that are still only 200 or 400 Mbps will almost all go to the gig in the next few years because the upgrades are so cheap.

G.fast can easily deliver hundreds of megabits upstream, far more than most cablecos will offer before next decade. 

Most cablecos will be limited to ~20 megabits upstream as they wait for Full Duplex, unlikely to even start before 2020. Verizon is advertising Fios 50/50 and 100/100 because the customers are buying higher speed.

The announcement that DT & Adtran are testing G.fast is an encouraging sign of change. Adtran is offering DT the new 212 MHz G.fast, which will bring speeds well over the gigabit. All we know publicly is that DT is doing a trial. Logic says they will switch to G.fast and FTTB, but DT hasn't always been logical previously.

The G.fast test they just announced with Adtran will show that G.fast is ready, easily deployed, and the right choice for larger buildings, perhaps 30%-40% of Germany. Speeds today from fiber to the basement or wireless to the rooftop are 500-800 megabits split between upstream and downstream, 212 GHz and cDTA should easily double that in most buildings. 

For now, FT, BT, & Telefonica are building far more advanced networks. FT and Telefonica are rapidly fibering most of France and Spain. BT is on track for 10M homes passed by G.fast at 300 megabits. In Germany, DT has no plans to upgrade about 20% of the country. They are hoping to get a government subsidy, although most of those homes can be affordably served. 

Instead, Angela Merkel should look the DT CEOs in the eyes, saying,

"We want all Germans to have an Internet choice that is at least comparable to France and Spain. DT has some of the best engineers in the world and they certainly can match the other Europeans. I've already put billions on the table. T-Mobile U.S.A. is earning billions more than anyone expected. You can sell your 12% share of British Telecom, I have faith in DT to find a way."

The German government controls about 30% of the shares in DT. That's enough to fire all the managers if she chooses to. Currently, DT mostly tells the government what to do. At least on the issue of the quality of the German Internet, Merkel should step in. Höttges and Wössner would have to deliver, 

DT does have some broadband strengths, It is the world leader in combining DSL with LTE in a single box. In most of the country, DT's LTE networks have plenty of capacity and that would be a promising offering. They also are planning VDSL 35B, although that's been delayed another 6 months until the second half of 2018. That will deliver > 200 megabits to those lucky enough to live close to the DSLAM. 

Where is German efficiency when the German people need it?

Management changes at Deutsche Telekom

 
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  • Niek Jan van Damme leaving Deutsche Telekom
  • Dirk Wössner to succeed as new Member of Board of Management for Germany
  • Niek Jan van Damme, Member of the Board of Management at Deutsche Telekom AG responsible for Germany, is leaving the company. Following a transition and onboarding period in the fourth quarter of this year, his successor Dr. Dirk Wössner will take on the position as of January 1, 2018. 

    Niek Jan van Damme: "After intensive talks with our CEO Tim Höttges and the Chairman of the Supervisory Board Ulrich Lehner, I have decided to resign from my current position as of the end of the year. It's a bit earlier than I had originally intended, but it's a good fit with my personal life planning and the best way to ensure a seamless transition – similar to the situation with René Obermann and Tim Höttges four years ago." 

    The Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Ulrich Lehner, thanked Niek Jan van Damme for his commitment and for the successful work over nine years as a member of the Deutsche Telekom Board of Management: "A window of opportunity had opened up for Dirk Wössner otherwise he would have been tied for a longer period."

    Timotheus Höttges, CEO of Deutsche Telekom: "I am looking forward to working with Dirk Wössner and to his return. He knows this company better than nearly anyone else. In the recent years he spent outside the Deutsche Telekom Group, he was able to gather valuable experience, which he will be able to contribute to his work at Deutsche Telekom starting next year. He was responsible for consumer business at Rogers Communications, the Canadian market leader, for example, and successfully steered it back to a course of growth. Rogers has a long tradition as an innovation leader in North America: under Dirk Wössner's leadership, Rogers was the first company to offer its customers 4K television and comprehensive broadband coverage with 1 Gbit/s. I want to thank Niek Jan van Damme profusely for his nearly 15 years of service. He contributed a great deal to Deutsche Telekom over this time: The list is extensive, but I wish to particularly emphasize the consolidation of fixed-network and mobile business in a single entity, the build-out and upgrade of our networks, and the significant improvement in service quality at Deutsche Telekom. The company and I owe him a great deal."

    Niek Jan van Damme: "I would like to thank all the employees, my colleagues on the Board of Management, and the employee representatives – and Tim Höttges in particular – for the excellent collaboration over 15 exciting years. I believe we have all achieved a great deal together. Dirk Wössner is taking on a well-kept organization. The company is growing – I wish him all the best and am firmly convinced that he will continue on this successful path." 

    Dirk Wössner: "I am looking forward to this new challenge and wish to thank everyone for the trust they are placing in me. Niek Jan van Damme has my special gratitude for his willingness to help me shape the transition together."

    Niek Jan van Damme, born in 1961, has been a member of the Board of Management of Deutsche Telekom AG since March 2009, responsible for fixed-line and mobile communications in Germany. Additionally, he is Chairman of the Managing Board of Telekom Deutschland GmbH as of April 2010.

    From January 2004 to 2009, Niek Jan van Damme was Chairman of the Managing Board of T-Mobile Netherlands where his successes included the integration of the mobile communications and fixed-network activities of Orange Netherlands into T-Mobile Netherlands (October 2007). In that position, he represented one of the core mobile communications markets on the Executive Committee of the T-Mobile International group.

    Niek Jan van Damme studied Economics at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. He started his career with Procter & Gamble in 1986 before joining the Dutch retailer Ahold in 1993. Niek Jan van Damme was a Managing Partner at Floor Heijn Retail from 1997 until he joined Ben Nederland, later T-Mobile Netherlands, as Director for Marketing Communications in June 1999.

    Dirk Wössner, born in 1969, has been responsible for consumer business at Rogers Communications since April 2015. Prior to that, he had held a variety of management positions at Deutsche Telekom since 2002, most recently Director of Sales for business and consumer customers in Germany. After earning his PhD in Chemistry, Dirk Wössner began his professional career at the McKinsey consulting firm. 

    Deutsche Glasfaser und Vodafone realisiere n Gigabit-Ne tze für Gewerbegeb iete (BREKO Press Statement: German glass fiber and Vodafone realize gigabit networks for business parks)

    the BREKO member companies German glass fiber and Vodafone have today announced the future wanting nationwide equip business parks with pure fiber-optic networks. With this objective, the two companies have agreed to cooperate: German Fiber Business - an independent subsidiary of German glass fiber Holding - realized the construction of the passive infrastructure, Vodafone operates the active technology and provides advanced services for the needs of the companies. The joint projects start with the network expansion of 19 industrial parks in the state capital Dusseldorf. The main beneficiaries will in the area of the city Dusseldorf approximately 5,000 companies.

    Here, the fiber-optic expansion is carried out by the German glass fiber completely self-financing. According to information from the German Fiber Business GmbH has secured financing totaling more than 100 million euros for the expansion of networks in industrial estates.

    The BREKO welcomes the cooperation of its member company German glass fiber with Vodafone. "The nationwide fiber-optic expansion in Germany only in the interaction of all market participants operate," says CEO Dr. BREKO Stephan Albers. "We therefore welcome such collaborations that strengthen the business location Germany and further promote our country, specifically." The German glass fiber has already announced in an interview with the Rheinische Post that future cooperation with other market participants are not excluded.

    Albers added: "Only direct fiber connections into all the buildings are in a position to meet the needs of particular SMEs in the coming gigabit society. Therefore, a special focus of the network operator of the BREKO is on the development of industrial estates. With its clear commitment to pure, ultra-fast fiber to directly in all buildings, the German glass fiber is already the digital infrastructure of tomorrow ready. "

    To speed up the nationwide rollout of fiber-optic connections in Germany, BREKO comes with its own trading platform for ultra-fast fiber optic connections - the BREKO trading platform - at the start. The Internet-based platform brings together suppliers and buyers of fiber networks - from small local city carriers to nationwide operating large corporations - together. In this way, the marketing potential is greatly enhanced fiber optic connector. Only with the highest possible network utilization, fiber optic networks can be operated economically. The BREKO trading platform is available to all market participants - regardless of a membership association - equally open. Currently, the registration phase runs for the platform, carried their technical realization on the BREKO member company 1 & 1 Versatel and vitroconnect. Expected in early fall first fiber connections are then to be actively marketed on the new platform.

     

    ADTRAN and Deutsche Telekom Look to Ultra Broadband Evolution to Advance the Gigabit Society

    Lab trials proving latest G.fast innovations, 212Mhz and cDTA, will accelerate deployment of ultra-fast and gigabit broadband services

    DARMSTADT, Germany--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jul. 18, 2017-- ADTRAN®, Inc., (NASDAQ: ADTN), a leading provider of next-generation open networking solutions, today announced the start of lab testing of the latest innovations in the G.fast standard, 212MHz and coordinated dynamic time allocation (cDTA) together with Deutsche Telekom (DT). DT is evaluating these ultra-broadband technologies using Fibre-to-the-Building (FTTB) deployment models allowing the use of existing cable infrastructure within the home. This will allow the rapid deployment of ultra-fast and gigabit broadband services with minimal disruption. The low cost per subscriber connection pays directly into achieving European Commission’s Gigabit Society goals.

    ADTRAN demonstrated the new 212MHz G.fast standard, which doubles the usable spectrum. This doubling of the usable spectrum allows service providers to deliver gigabit rates over a single copper pair, enabling robust fibre-like service delivery all the way to the customer premise. In contrast to cable systems, the bandwidth of G.fast is dedicated and available for each customer. The tests, leveraging the first commercially available 212MHz DPU also demonstrated the second phase of DTA. cDTA, like the earlier iDTA feature, improves G.fast upstream performance by four to five times by dynamically balancing upstream and downstream capacity to match residential traffic patterns in real-time. cDTA also expands the applicability of this feature to existing phone wiring, thus covering nearly all residential and commercial premises.

    “Operators in highly competitive, dense urban or urban environments are challenged to extend gigabit services due to the time and cost that can be associated with pure play FTTH techniques,” said Jay Wilson, senior vice president at ADTRAN. “With G.fast innovation, operators, such as DT, can significantly accelerate Gigabit Society goals by launching gigabit services over their existing infrastructure dramatically reducing subscriber disruption.”

    These two most recent G.fast advancements, 212MHz and cDTA, extract even greater overall performance from an operator’s existing assets, and in many scenarios, eliminates the need for full FTTH for years. For the first time, these G.fast innovations enable service providers to more rapidly and cost-effectively extend symmetric gigabit services and expand ultra-fast broadband to the wider market.

    About ADTRAN

    ADTRAN, Inc. is a leading global provider of networking and communications equipment. ADTRAN’s products enable voice, data, video and Internet communications across a variety of network infrastructures. ADTRAN solutions are currently in use by service providers, private enterprises, government organizations, and millions of individual users worldwide. For more information, please visit www.adtran.com.

    About DT

    Deutsche Telekom is one of the world's leading integrated telecommunications companies, with some 165 million mobile customers, 28,5 million fixed-network lines, and 18,5 million broadband lines. Deutsche Telekom provides fixed-network/broadband, mobile communications, Internet, and IPTV products and services for consumers, and information and communication technology (ICT) solutions for business and corporate customers. More information are available on https://www.telekom.com/en.

    The Site for gfast 230
     

    G.fast News
    A remarkable 400 people attended the very strong Broadband Forum BASE events in Berlin and Las Vegas. Trevor confirmed BT would pass the million this year. Cioffi projected “Waveguide DSL” could carry 10 gigabits a kilometer as well as a terabit 100 meters. Werner sees a 4X improvement in upstream with cDTA. Much more in next issue.

    Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ
    Deutsche Telekom is finally realizing that 50 megabit DSL won't make it against gigabit cable. VP Franz Seiser is blunt. "We must change radically, become disruptive and, above all, throw away things," he proclaims at BBWF. After years of DT insisting 50 megabits is plenty, we now hear "it is about Gigabit products" from DT's Robert Soukup.  
        A lucky building in Frankfurt will receive 500+ megabit service as ultra-conservative Deutsche Telekom experiments with G.fast. Soukup told BBWF, "We're going to have a field test in Frankfurt with G.fast and Fiber To The Building (FTTB.) We will know by the end of the year if this is the right way to go." Hint to Soukup: Yes it is. G.fast is working well at a dozen telcos I;ve talked to.
         The details are surprising. DT is going for CORD, Open Source, Calix, and Radisys. http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ

    *** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

    1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test http://bit.ly/Calix16
    A telco tells me they are getting impressive early results from the Calix 48 port DSLAM with the new Sckipio 212 MHz chips. There still is work to do but this is encouraging. 
        Carriers want DSLAMs with more than 16 ports to reduce the deployment costs from the basement or larger field cabinets. Speed matters to the marketing side of the company; AT&T's CEO believes he must offer a true gigabit to match cable. (They've been getting ~750 megabits with first generation chips. http://bit.ly/Calix16

    *** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
    Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

    Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia http://bit.ly/NetcommRP
    Australia is connecting 1M homes to G.fast, some with a Netcomm distribution point mini-DSLAM. It's a small unit designed for pole or pit mounting. It's waterproof, pressure proof, and temperature resistant. Their matching home modem is bittorrent friendly, with two USB ports for a hard drive dedicated to sharing.
         A reverse power unit at the customer, the NDD-0100-01, can save the cost of bringing power to the DSLAM. They don't expect many orders until the second half of 2018, as nbn is waiting for the second generation chips. Netcomm demonstrated RP with BT Openreach in August. http://bit.ly/NetcommRP

    *** Sckipio's Three advances are taking G.fast to the next level.http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

    Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus http://bit.ly/GFAussie
    No news here. In September, 2015, I reported Australia's nbn Going G.fast. This June. I reported the million home fiber to the curb (kerb?) was beginning. Unfortunately, they are no closer to figuring out where to find the needed $10B to $20B to cover the cost overruns. Instead, the parties are battling in Parliament about who is to blame. http://bit.ly/GFAussie

    2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabitshttp://bit.ly/twobonded
    Sckipio at BBWF is demonstrating 3 gigabits down, nearly a gigabit up, over two phone lines, bonded. Twice the bandwidth (212 MHz instead of 106 MHz) times two lines is fast. Sckipio does great demos; at CES, they showed G.fast first generation chips delivering almost 1 gig upstream.
        “Sckipio is pushing Gfast to astonishing speeds with production silicon,” CEO David Baum proclaims. Calix is using the SCK23000 chipset in their 48 port gig+ DSLAM at the show. http://bit.ly/twobonded

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