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Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

Carl's epiphany: the box business was going to shrink; software was going to become king; the carriers' traditional revenue would stagnate or worse. More recently, I heard much the same things from AT&T. It's now the common wisdom. Ten years ago, I didn't put all that together and I think few others did. 

To decide the right moves, he started with the question "What will Calix's customers need in ten years?" His first conclusion was that the carriers would need to find massive new revenues. That would require extreme flexibility, including a network designed to satisfy new demands rapidly. With revenues flat to down, the carriers would need to cut costs drastically to stay profitable. Inevitably, that would squeeze their suppliers. 

Russo decided the answer was agile software that brought carrier products to market quickly and allowed using less expensive standard hardware.

Today, we call that SDN - Software Defined Networking - and AT&T has become a true believer. So have most of the biggest telcos. Carl's aim is right on target. 

Calix's AXOS software is now controlling DSLAMs at dozens of their customers. Verizon is testing it on NG-PON2 fiber units. The demonstrations were impressive, but everything is still early.  

AXOS has clearly defined North and South interfaces to work with just any controller and hardware. They are directly working with CORD and ECOMP in the lab. They plan an open ecosystem and are actively recruiting companies with related products. They bring an attractive market to partners, including being near exclusive suppliers to hundreds of telcos. They have units at both Verizon and AT&T, with good prospects for growing their market share at the bigger companies.

I'm not qualified to report in depth about SDN software. To this uneducated viewer, their products look very good. I'm sure Calix would be delighted to demonstrate for you. While best known in the U.S. and Canada, they have a recent win in Australia and an expanding presence in much of the world.



212 GHz and cDTA are soon shipping from Adtran. True gigabit is here. Sales takeoff is almost in sight, probably Q1 2018.
Australia confirms 1M, AT&T is ready to ramp, DT finally is moving. Omantel and Telkom South Africa are now on the map. Almost all telcos are now choosing for large buildings when they don't go FTTH. MNet Cologne and Chunghwa Taiwan have changed from fiber all the way to in the basement.

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran
Frank Miller of Century: Will be Important to Us

Carl Russo: Since 2007, I've Been Turning Calix Into a Software Company

Adtran Chosen for Australia nbn Fiber to the curb.

nbn looking to a million lines. This one is big. Adtran is on a roll, with DT & AT&T also looking good for 2018.

1,400,000,000 In The Works. 1.4 Gigabits
South Africa & Connecticut Go Nokia

Omantel: 90% Fiber &


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