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Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Green: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, 

Frank MillerThe 44 building trial went well and Miller expects to deploy widely. Century, the $17B telco that swallowed Qwest, has 6M broadband lines. many of which need to be upgraded. He has to replace the older lines despite modestly reduced capex. is cost effective and hence a natural choice. He didn't give a projection but sounded like he planned to move quickly.

Sean Buckley of Fierce captured Miller's comments at the Calix Analyst meeting. “When I first came to CenturyLink as the VP of architecture and strategy, my main call was more tied to service velocity,” Miller said. “Our competition of the future is not a telecom company, but rather the Amazon, Facebooks and Hulus of the world, so we had this one time to transform to a software platform and the first to key projects are and NG-PON2.”

Miller intends to move aggressively to Software Defined Networks. He is particularly concerned with deploying rapidly. Comcast is moving fast on gigabit downstream DOCSIS 3.1 and advertising aggressively in the early markets. Cox, however, is delaying the gig until 2020.

The upstream can be an important competitive advantage over most cable for years. Many cablecos have decided to wait for Full Duplex upstream, which John Chapman tells me will be barely out of the labs in 2019. Full Duplex requires remote PHYs, which are a major capital investment and deployment effort. Some cablecos will take a long time to improve all the network.

I would much rather have 50 down, 50 up than the 200/20 that is the best I can get from Time Warner. Jennie does video and the 50/50 Fios at her apartment is a pleasure. I'd switch immediately but Verizon hasn't done my building. Current from fiber to the basement or wireless to the rooftop is 500-800 megabits, allowing 100-200 meg upstream. I want it. The 212 MHz of Amendment 3 will almost double that, probably next year.

35b vectoring is also in the Century plans. Miller says it's a natural choice where most of the lines are 400-700 meters, beyond the efficient range of Deutsche Telekom has just delayed 35b to customers until late 2018, but has deployed millions of easily upgradeable lines. Lab tests show 200+ downstream on short loops. 

Century is buying Level 3 as a way to diversify from the declining landline business, at a price that will continue to limit the upgrade cycle.

Important Conflict of Interest Note: Calix paid my airfare and hotel to attend their Analyst event in San Francisco, 


The Site for gfast 230 News
A remarkable 400 people attended the very strong Broadband Forum BASE events in Berlin and Las Vegas. Trevor confirmed BT would pass the million this year. Cioffi projected “Waveguide DSL” could carry 10 gigabits a kilometer as well as a terabit 100 meters. Werner sees a 4X improvement in upstream with cDTA. Much more in next issue.

Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough
Deutsche Telekom is finally realizing that 50 megabit DSL won't make it against gigabit cable. VP Franz Seiser is blunt. "We must change radically, become disruptive and, above all, throw away things," he proclaims at BBWF. After years of DT insisting 50 megabits is plenty, we now hear "it is about Gigabit products" from DT's Robert Soukup.  
    A lucky building in Frankfurt will receive 500+ megabit service as ultra-conservative Deutsche Telekom experiments with Soukup told BBWF, "We're going to have a field test in Frankfurt with and Fiber To The Building (FTTB.) We will know by the end of the year if this is the right way to go." Hint to Soukup: Yes it is. is working well at a dozen telcos I;ve talked to.
     The details are surprising. DT is going for CORD, Open Source, Calix, and Radisys.

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download (ad) It is the best technical guide to  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test
A telco tells me they are getting impressive early results from the Calix 48 port DSLAM with the new Sckipio 212 MHz chips. There still is work to do but this is encouraging. 
    Carriers want DSLAMs with more than 16 ports to reduce the deployment costs from the basement or larger field cabinets. Speed matters to the marketing side of the company; AT&T's CEO believes he must offer a true gigabit to match cable. (They've been getting ~750 megabits with first generation chips.

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Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia
Australia is connecting 1M homes to, some with a Netcomm distribution point mini-DSLAM. It's a small unit designed for pole or pit mounting. It's waterproof, pressure proof, and temperature resistant. Their matching home modem is bittorrent friendly, with two USB ports for a hard drive dedicated to sharing.
     A reverse power unit at the customer, the NDD-0100-01, can save the cost of bringing power to the DSLAM. They don't expect many orders until the second half of 2018, as nbn is waiting for the second generation chips. Netcomm demonstrated RP with BT Openreach in August.

*** Sckipio's Three advances are taking to the next level. (ad)

Australia Makes it Official: to Million Plus
No news here. In September, 2015, I reported Australia's nbn Going This June. I reported the million home fiber to the curb (kerb?) was beginning. Unfortunately, they are no closer to figuring out where to find the needed $10B to $20B to cover the cost overruns. Instead, the parties are battling in Parliament about who is to blame.

2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits
Sckipio at BBWF is demonstrating 3 gigabits down, nearly a gigabit up, over two phone lines, bonded. Twice the bandwidth (212 MHz instead of 106 MHz) times two lines is fast. Sckipio does great demos; at CES, they showed first generation chips delivering almost 1 gig upstream.
    “Sckipio is pushing Gfast to astonishing speeds with production silicon,” CEO David Baum proclaims. Calix is using the SCK23000 chipset in their 48 port gig+ DSLAM at the show.

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