spacer 2Telebyte Gfast Testing Guide 320

Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

Frank MillerThe 44 building trial went well and Miller expects G.fast to deploy widely. Century, the $17B telco that swallowed Qwest, has 6M broadband lines. many of which need to be upgraded. He has to replace the older lines despite modestly reduced capex. G.fast is cost effective and hence a natural choice. He didn't give a projection but sounded like he planned to move quickly.

Sean Buckley of Fierce captured Miller's comments at the Calix Analyst meeting. “When I first came to CenturyLink as the VP of architecture and strategy, my main call was more tied to service velocity,” Miller said. “Our competition of the future is not a telecom company, but rather the Amazon, Facebooks and Hulus of the world, so we had this one time to transform to a software platform and the first to key projects are G.fast and NG-PON2.”

Miller intends to move aggressively to Software Defined Networks. He is particularly concerned with deploying rapidly. Comcast is moving fast on gigabit downstream DOCSIS 3.1 and advertising aggressively in the early markets. Cox, however, is delaying the gig until 2020.

The G.fast upstream can be an important competitive advantage over most cable for years. Many cablecos have decided to wait for Full Duplex upstream, which John Chapman tells me will be barely out of the labs in 2019. Full Duplex requires remote PHYs, which are a major capital investment and deployment effort. Some cablecos will take a long time to improve all the network.

I would much rather have 50 down, 50 up than the 200/20 that is the best I can get from Time Warner. Jennie does video and the 50/50 Fios at her apartment is a pleasure. I'd switch immediately but Verizon hasn't done my building. Current G.fast from fiber to the basement or wireless to the rooftop is 500-800 megabits, allowing 100-200 meg upstream. I want it. The 212 MHz of Amendment 3 will almost double that, probably next year.

35b vectoring is also in the Century plans. Miller says it's a natural choice where most of the lines are 400-700 meters, beyond the efficient range of G.fast. Deutsche Telekom has just delayed 35b to customers until late 2018, but has deployed millions of easily upgradeable lines. Lab tests show 200+ downstream on short loops. 

Century is buying Level 3 as a way to diversify from the declining landline business, at a price that will continue to limit the upgrade cycle.

Important Conflict of Interest Note: Calix paid my airfare and hotel to attend their Analyst event in San Francisco, 
 

 


212 GHz and cDTA are soon shipping from Adtran. True gigabit is here. Sales takeoff is almost in sight, probably Q1 2018.
Australia confirms 1M, AT&T is ready to ramp, DT finally is moving. Omantel and Telkom South Africa are now on the map. Almost all telcos are now choosing G.fast for large buildings when they don't go FTTH. MNet Cologne and Chunghwa Taiwan have changed from fiber all the way to G.fast in the basement.

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran http://bit.ly/GF212cDTA
Frank Miller of Century: G.fast Will be Important to Us http://bit.ly/GFCentury

Carl Russo: Since 2007, I've Been Turning Calix Into a Software Company http://bit.ly/CalixSDN

Adtran Chosen for Australia nbn Fiber to the curb. http://bit.ly/GFnabAus

nbn looking to a million lines. This one is big. Adtran is on a roll, with DT & AT&T also looking good for 2018.

1,400,000,000 In The Works. 1.4 Gigabits http://bit.ly/GF14Gig
South Africa & Connecticut Go Nokia http://bit.ly/SouthAF

Omantel: 90% Fiber & G.fast http://bit.ly/Omantel

 

Read more ...