august
Dark blue: 
Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Swisscom,                                          Ad from Sckipio
Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Korea SK, (U.S.) Century & Windstream
Light blue: Smaller carriers: Canada, Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
Green: Incumbent likely: France, Germany, Australia, Poland & Panama                                    
Below: Country by country details. 

Read more ...

BT-CabinetIt's really cheap to just hang a box on an existing remote terminal. "We're rolling out those side pods on the cabinets a quite a place now we have the production hardware, we have the production firmware and we're building a footprint quite quickly now," said Clive Seeley on the quarterly call. "The indications are that the performance of the product over the new equipment is pretty much spot on what we had predicted from the labs in the earlier few trials and I am very pleased with that. So I'm very pleased with where we stand right now on G.fast."

They are on target for 150,000 or so homes passed in the next couple of months and a fast ramp towards the 10M they've promised for 2020. BT is running G.halffast, with a target of ?300 down, ?30 up at three hundred meters. It would be impressive if they hit that; the results I've seen elsewhere are 10%-20% lower. The results at 100 meters - the plan before the beancounters jumped in - will probably be 500-800 megabits split between upstream and downstream. The early trials of G.fast have shown 5%-15% of the lines do not reach the expected speeds. BT and everyone else in the industry are scrambling to find and fix the problems. 

The more interesting question is whether Huawei and Nokia have delivered the external vectoring boxes expected about six months ago.

The Broadcom chips in their DSLAMs can't handle vectoring more than 16 ports, which severely complicates the installation. The calculations to vector 300 megabit lines in quantity stretch state of the art chips, especially because efficient algorithms need to be developed. Neither of the companies has shown working vectoring boxes, one reason many G.fast rollouts are going slowly. I've sent questions over to Broadcom, Nokia, Huawei, and BT. I expect "no comments" from all of them. BT could surprise me. They are far more open about their network than the Americans.    

BT's 20% stock price collapse Jan 24 is almost unique for an incumbent telco the last 15 years. The market cap went down $8B after BT announced a $650M set aside for fraud in their Italian division and a £200m revenue shortfall. I believe Gavin Patterson's claim he had no idea what was going on and the $650M loss was a total surprise. (He's a great salesman.) Many investors want him to fall on his sword for missing something that big. Others are asking for a refund on the bonuses he received for hundreds of millions in false profits. He's propping up the stock price  

At first glance, the $8B fall is disproportionate given the level of the announced shortfalls, which look like $2B to $3B over five years. Analysts looking closer found troubling signs, however. BT has already lost billions getting into software and "global services." Contracts are running out and they are not winning new ones, No one will be surprised if they take large layoffs and chop thousands of heads.  

They confirmed the decision to go halffast on the financial call. "The way to think about G.fast is that we leverage the infrastructure that is already deployed for VDSLs. So we leverage the backhaul from the cabinet. We leverage the power supply. Our costs are really just the costs of the new G.fast box." Cable is in 50%+ of England and soon over 60%. It will run at a gigabit down and soon hundreds of megabits up. The difference today probably won't matter to customers, but in a few years it will be a serious disadvantage. Not investing now is a risky decision. 

Thanks to Sean Buckley of Fierce for pointing me to this story.

Here's some of the outreach for shareholder suits. Usually, they are unjustified but I wouldn't assume that until I saw what comes out in discovery. 

  • Accesswire8 hours ago
    IMPORTANT EQUITY ALERT: Khang & Khang LLP Announces Securities Class Action Lawsuit Against BT Group plc and Encourages Investors with Losses to Contact the Firm

    IRVINE, CA / ACCESSWIRE / January 30, 2017 / Khang & Khang LLP (the "Firm") announces the filing of a class action lawsuit against BT Group plc ("BT Group" or the "Company") ...

     
  • RM LAW Announces Class Action Lawsuit Against BT Group plc

    BERWYN, Pa., Jan. 30, 2017 /PRNewswire/ --  RM LAW, P.C . announces that a class action lawsuit has been filed in United States District Court for the Southern District of New York on behalf of all persons ...

     
  • Accesswire13 hours ago
    IMPORTANT SHAREHOLDER NOTICE: Lundin Law PC Announces Securities Class Action Lawsuit against BT Group plc, and Encourages Investors with Losses to Contact the Firm

    LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / January 30, 2017 / Lundin Law PC , a shareholder rights firm, announces the filing of a class action lawsuit against BT Group plc ("BT Group" or the "Company") ...

     
  • Accesswire16 hours ago
    IMPORTANT EQUITY ALERT: Khang & Khang LLP Announces Securities Class Action Lawsuit against BT Group plc and Encourages Investors with Losses to Contact the Firm

    IRVINE, CA / ACCESSWIRE / January 30, 2017 / Khang & Khang LLP (the "Firm") announces the filing of a class action lawsuit against BT Group plc ("BT Group" or the "Company") ...

     
  • GlobeNewswire17 hours ago
    BT SHAREHOLDER ALERT: The Law Offices of Vincent Wong Notifies Investors of a Class Action Involving BT Group plc and a Lead Plaintiff Deadline of March 27, 2017

    NEW YORK, Jan. 30, 2017-- The Law Offices of Vincent Wong announce that a class action lawsuit has been commenced in the USDC for the Southern District of New York on behalf of investors who purchased ...

     
  • GlobeNewswire18 hours ago
    SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Notifies Investors of Class Action Against BT Group plc (BT) & Lead Plaintiff Deadline - March 27, 2017

    NEW YORK, Jan. 30, 2017-- Attorney Advertising-- Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC notifies investors that a class action lawsuit has been filed against BT Group plc and certain of its officers, on behalf ...

     
  •  
  • GlobeNewswire3 days ago
    BT GROUP SHAREHOLDER ALERT BY FORMER LOUISIANA ATTORNEY GENERAL: KAHN SWICK & FOTI, LLC REMINDS INVESTORS WITH LOSSES IN EXCESS OF $100,000 of Lead Plaintiff Deadline in Class Action Lawsuit Against BT Group plc – (BT)

    NEW ORLEANS, Jan. 27, 2017-- Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC and KSF partner, the former Attorney General of Louisiana, Charles C. Foti, Jr., reminds investors that they have until March 27, 2017 to file lead plaintiff ...

  • News
    Business Wire4 days ago
    IMPORTANT INVESTOR ALERT: Lundin Law PC Announces Securities Class Action Lawsuit against BT Group plc, and Encourages Investors with Losses to Contact the Firm

    Lundin Law PC, a shareholder rights firm, announces the filing of a class action lawsuit against BT Group plc concerning possible violations of federal securities laws between May 23, 2013 and January 23, 2017 inclusive .

     
  • News
    PR Newswire4 days ago
    SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Notifies Investors of Class Action Against BT Group plc (BT) & Lead Plaintiff Deadline - March 27, 2017

    NEW YORK, Jan. 27, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Attorney Advertising-- Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC notifies investors that a class action lawsuit has been filed against BT Group plc ("BT" or the "Company") (BT) and certain of its officers, on behalf of a class who purchased BT ADRs between May 23, 2013, and January 23, 2017, inclusive (the "Class Period"). Such investors are encouraged to join this case by visiting the firm's site: http://www.bgandg.com/bt. This class action seeks to recover damages against Defendants for alleged violations of the federal securities laws under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In October 2016, BT exposed an initial investigation into historical accounting practices in its Italian division, resulting in several years of overstated earnings, and stated a substantial write-down. After finding this overstatement and corrupt practices in its Italian division, on January 24, 2016, BT cut its predictions of its revenue, earnings and free cash flow for 2017 and 2018.

     
  • SHAREHOLDER ALERT: BT Group Investors Encouraged to Contact Holzer & Holzer Regarding Recently Filed Class Action

    Holzer & Holzer, LLC announces that a class action lawsuit has been filed on behalf of investors who purchased BT Group PLC securities between May 24, 2012 and January 20, 2017.

     
  • SHAREHOLDER ALERT: Shareholder Rights Law Firm Johnson & Weaver, LLP Announces Investigation of BT Group plc; Encourages Investors to Contact the Firm SAN DIEGO, Jan. 24, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Shareholder rights law firm Johnson & Weaver, LLP has commenced an

Newsletter

Often interesting

Upperside rectangle

Latest
BT: G.fast performance "pretty much spot on"
DSM Could Increase G.fast Speeds 25-50+ Megabit
DT: No 35b VDSL before 2018, modems not available
AT&T G.fast confirmed (unofficially.)
Andrew Ferguson: DSLAMs can be different
Energia Selling Nokia G.fast in Japan
Calix Clobbered by Services Cost
Switzerland: We're going G.fast; Forget fiber home except in new builds 
Nokia takes XG-FAST to 8 gig in the lab at nbn 
Huawei jumping in to G.faster 
Paris G.fast Summit 2017 9 to 11 May will be a great show
100,000 G.fast modems sold by Technicolor - running VDSL Australia: 
700,000 "FTTdp homes." Should use G.fast but may go VDSL. 
Tens of millions G.fast lines predicted 
"Study" predicts $200/line G.fast chip price in 2022 !? 

Read more ...