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Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

Slow in the first half, probably ramping in the second half. AT&T is being officially coy, but a senior source confirmed they are definitely moving ahead on G.fast. Tom Starr played an important role in the standard and they were one of the first in trials. Their top executives have been enthusiastic several times. They have been making quiet moves in D.C. to get out of their commitment to 12.5 million fiber homes, presumably using G.fast instead. 

G.fast is logical for them. They've built an enormous amount of fiber the last few years, going first to businesses. In many places, fiber can be extended inexpensively to nearby buildings. They are also expanding their trial of WTTR - Wireless to the rooftop - beyond Minneapolis. Wall Street is riding them for the lines lost to cable, now going to a gigabit in most of the U.S.

They have millions of lines of coax connected to rooftop antennas from the DirecTV buy.

I reported G.fast over coax as  last year. That was engineered specifically for AT&T. I believe both Adtran and Calix are ready.

They have to save money someplace. AT&T isn't broke, but their "balance sheet is stretched to the breaking point." (Moffett.) To maintain an inflated $250B market cap, they have raised dividends every year while earnings have been flat. Their financials are obscured, but I think they are borrowing money to cover the dividend. T-Mobile now has a network about as good as AT&T, so they have to keep investing in wireless. They are making a heroic effort to bring in SDN & NFV to cut costs, but the 70,000-80,000 jobs cut remain ambitious. 

So why haven't they begun? BT is has passed 80,000-90,000 homes with G.fast, admittedly on the cheap reusing existing cabinets. AT&T only has small trials. AT&T is no longer the slow moving iceberg; the top of the company is willing to change to get things done. 

It could be the limited number of lines in a vector group, 16-24. That makes the deployment more expensive. The new boxes are late. DOCSIS 3.1 is delivering a true gig down to more and more of the country; AT&T wants to honestly say they have a gig while G.fast speeds are more like 500-600 down. (Plenty for me.) The new Amendment 2 & 3 chips may solve that - when they arrive. Chip interoperability still has a way to go. AT&T had a $billion dispute with Alcatel over U-Verse when it was a single source supplier. They want choices in chips. They want everything in their network managed by CORD and eCOMP; the integration work continues.

They may just be waiting to make a big noise in D.C. to get the Time Warner merger approved.

 

 


212 GHz and cDTA are soon shipping from Adtran. True gigabit is here. Sales takeoff is almost in sight, probably Q1 2018.
Australia confirms 1M, AT&T is ready to ramp, DT finally is moving. Omantel and Telkom South Africa are now on the map. Almost all telcos are now choosing G.fast for large buildings when they don't go FTTH. MNet Cologne and Chunghwa Taiwan have changed from fiber all the way to G.fast in the basement.

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran http://bit.ly/GF212cDTA
Frank Miller of Century: G.fast Will be Important to Us http://bit.ly/GFCentury

Carl Russo: Since 2007, I've Been Turning Calix Into a Software Company http://bit.ly/CalixSDN

Adtran Chosen for Australia nbn Fiber to the curb. http://bit.ly/GFnabAus

nbn looking to a million lines. This one is big. Adtran is on a roll, with DT & AT&T also looking good for 2018.

1,400,000,000 In The Works. 1.4 Gigabits http://bit.ly/GF14Gig
South Africa & Connecticut Go Nokia http://bit.ly/SouthAF

Omantel: 90% Fiber & G.fast http://bit.ly/Omantel

 

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