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gfast map nov

Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Green: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, 

Slow in the first half, probably ramping in the second half. AT&T is being officially coy, but a senior source confirmed they are definitely moving ahead on Tom Starr played an important role in the standard and they were one of the first in trials. Their top executives have been enthusiastic several times. They have been making quiet moves in D.C. to get out of their commitment to 12.5 million fiber homes, presumably using instead. is logical for them. They've built an enormous amount of fiber the last few years, going first to businesses. In many places, fiber can be extended inexpensively to nearby buildings. They are also expanding their trial of WTTR - Wireless to the rooftop - beyond Minneapolis. Wall Street is riding them for the lines lost to cable, now going to a gigabit in most of the U.S.

They have millions of lines of coax connected to rooftop antennas from the DirecTV buy.

I reported over coax as  last year. That was engineered specifically for AT&T. I believe both Adtran and Calix are ready.

They have to save money someplace. AT&T isn't broke, but their "balance sheet is stretched to the breaking point." (Moffett.) To maintain an inflated $250B market cap, they have raised dividends every year while earnings have been flat. Their financials are obscured, but I think they are borrowing money to cover the dividend. T-Mobile now has a network about as good as AT&T, so they have to keep investing in wireless. They are making a heroic effort to bring in SDN & NFV to cut costs, but the 70,000-80,000 jobs cut remain ambitious. 

So why haven't they begun? BT is has passed 80,000-90,000 homes with, admittedly on the cheap reusing existing cabinets. AT&T only has small trials. AT&T is no longer the slow moving iceberg; the top of the company is willing to change to get things done. 

It could be the limited number of lines in a vector group, 16-24. That makes the deployment more expensive. The new boxes are late. DOCSIS 3.1 is delivering a true gig down to more and more of the country; AT&T wants to honestly say they have a gig while speeds are more like 500-600 down. (Plenty for me.) The new Amendment 2 & 3 chips may solve that - when they arrive. Chip interoperability still has a way to go. AT&T had a $billion dispute with Alcatel over U-Verse when it was a single source supplier. They want choices in chips. They want everything in their network managed by CORD and eCOMP; the integration work continues.

They may just be waiting to make a big noise in D.C. to get the Time Warner merger approved.



The Site for gfast 230 News
A remarkable 400 people attended the very strong Broadband Forum BASE events in Berlin and Las Vegas. Trevor confirmed BT would pass the million this year. Cioffi projected “Waveguide DSL” could carry 10 gigabits a kilometer as well as a terabit 100 meters. Werner sees a 4X improvement in upstream with cDTA. Much more in next issue.

Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough
Deutsche Telekom is finally realizing that 50 megabit DSL won't make it against gigabit cable. VP Franz Seiser is blunt. "We must change radically, become disruptive and, above all, throw away things," he proclaims at BBWF. After years of DT insisting 50 megabits is plenty, we now hear "it is about Gigabit products" from DT's Robert Soukup.  
    A lucky building in Frankfurt will receive 500+ megabit service as ultra-conservative Deutsche Telekom experiments with Soukup told BBWF, "We're going to have a field test in Frankfurt with and Fiber To The Building (FTTB.) We will know by the end of the year if this is the right way to go." Hint to Soukup: Yes it is. is working well at a dozen telcos I;ve talked to.
     The details are surprising. DT is going for CORD, Open Source, Calix, and Radisys.

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download (ad) It is the best technical guide to  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test
A telco tells me they are getting impressive early results from the Calix 48 port DSLAM with the new Sckipio 212 MHz chips. There still is work to do but this is encouraging. 
    Carriers want DSLAMs with more than 16 ports to reduce the deployment costs from the basement or larger field cabinets. Speed matters to the marketing side of the company; AT&T's CEO believes he must offer a true gigabit to match cable. (They've been getting ~750 megabits with first generation chips.

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Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia
Australia is connecting 1M homes to, some with a Netcomm distribution point mini-DSLAM. It's a small unit designed for pole or pit mounting. It's waterproof, pressure proof, and temperature resistant. Their matching home modem is bittorrent friendly, with two USB ports for a hard drive dedicated to sharing.
     A reverse power unit at the customer, the NDD-0100-01, can save the cost of bringing power to the DSLAM. They don't expect many orders until the second half of 2018, as nbn is waiting for the second generation chips. Netcomm demonstrated RP with BT Openreach in August.

*** Sckipio's Three advances are taking to the next level. (ad)

Australia Makes it Official: to Million Plus
No news here. In September, 2015, I reported Australia's nbn Going This June. I reported the million home fiber to the curb (kerb?) was beginning. Unfortunately, they are no closer to figuring out where to find the needed $10B to $20B to cover the cost overruns. Instead, the parties are battling in Parliament about who is to blame.

2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits
Sckipio at BBWF is demonstrating 3 gigabits down, nearly a gigabit up, over two phone lines, bonded. Twice the bandwidth (212 MHz instead of 106 MHz) times two lines is fast. Sckipio does great demos; at CES, they showed first generation chips delivering almost 1 gig upstream.
    “Sckipio is pushing Gfast to astonishing speeds with production silicon,” CEO David Baum proclaims. Calix is using the SCK23000 chipset in their 48 port gig+ DSLAM at the show.

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