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gfast map nov

Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Pink: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

Nothing official, but the boss sure seems to have decided. CTO Ibrahim Gedeon spoke twice at Huawei's MBBF in Tokyo. It was a mobile event but was part of both of his presentations.  It's a natural extension to Telus' fiber deep network. He used VDSL to bring video speed service to many homes and fiber home for others. He faces cable almost everywhere and will need to upgrade as Canadian cablecos move to a gigabit. (Videotron in Quebec is already offering gigabits. The cablecos in Telus' Western Canada region will be doing similar.)

Fiber home is working well but is costly. His estimate was $700 to connect a home and sometimes as much as $1,000. (Presumably, he was quoting Canadian dollars, currently worth 25% less than U.S. dollars. $700 Canadian is a little more than $500 U.S.)

A while back, Verizon estimated $600-$700 (USD) to connect a home; they've said it has come down substantially since then. Randall Stephenson of AT&T has confirmed fiber deployment costs have come down substantially.

All figures like this vary widely by local circumstances, so are never exact. Accounting choices, such as how much overhead to allocate, can result in 30% differences in two estimates based on identical data. eliminates much of the cost of fiber home while delivering 500-800 megabits 100 meters from fiber. That's especially true if the customer self-installs, although that can often result in lower line speed. The savings can be so substantial that over 60 telcos are testing just with Adtran. At least 15 are already in deployment. Others are waiting for new equipment that supports vectoring 64 or more lines, rather than the 24 that is the maximum today. Vendors promise delivery soon. 

I hope to have official word soon. 

The Site for gfast 230 News

I’m still working through remarkable presentations from the Broadband Forum events. Michael Weissman, Bernd Hesse and team did a remarkable job choosing the speakers.

Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. 35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. 

The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on. Broadcom in 2015 said 35b was in "production" in the press release below. Alcatel in early 2016 said to expect complete systems very soon. "35g is very similar to 17a so there should be little delay."

Broadcom's problems are leading major telcos and vendors to have a plan B, using Sckipio DT itself is planning extensive deployments in 2019, mostly in apartment buildings.

Gigabit 100 Meters - Unless the Wires are Lousy
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. 

His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both & vectored DSL. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.

Rami's solution to reach the gigabit is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips. Verbin made some additional points:

  • 4 gigabits is possible by bonding two decent 2 gigabit lines.
  • Even in a service from remote cabinets, ~25% are close enough to get a full gigabit."
  • cDTA and iDTA are practical ways to deliver much higher upstream by switching some bandwidth from downstream to upstream only when needed.
  • 35B will probably be similar but Deutsche Telecom doesn't expect to deploy until 2019.

AT&T Wants Coax 2-5 Gigabit Very Soon.
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.

AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits. The ITU standards group has been aiming for 2019-2020 for G.mgfast, too slow for AT&T's marketers. David Titus wants a high-speed standard for coax "early in 2018." He believes that is "doable."

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