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Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

Abacus-from-WIkipedia-240Not a typographical error, unfortunately.  To reach the projected "USD 4,216.3 Million" in G.fast chip sales, chip price per home served would have to be $200  or so. That's ten times the price today in some markets, with every expectation the prices will go down over six years. (Moore's Law may be slowing but it isn't dead.) Save your $5650; an outfit called Markets and Markets has produced a work of low fantasy in the guise of a research "study."  Buy these folks a new abacus. They include estimates for Broadcom, Sckipio, and Metanoia, who recently demonstrated interoperability, as well as Qualcomm/Ikanos, shuttered months before the November 2016 report date.

They include estimates for Broadcom, Sckipio, and Metanoia, who recently demonstrated interoperability, as well as Qualcomm/Ikanos, shuttered months before the November 2016 report date. If G.fast chips were even a quarter the price implied, most companies would use either fiber home or supervectoring.

At a more realistic price of $20/port, it would require deploying 200M lines that year. Ovum estimates 11.5M G.fast connections in 2021, in a report paid for by British Telecom and Australia's nbn, both strong advocates.

That's higher than many estimates, although I can envision somewhat higher scenarios. It would be remarkable if 20M lines were connected in 2022.

Predictions about the future are hard - see Trump, Donald. Precision five years out on a technology barely out of the labs is impossible. Hitting the target within 10% would be remarkable here. The $4,216.3M estimated sales requires precision to less than 1/10 of 1%. My eight grade math teacher would have flunked me. 

A natural paper for The Journal of Irreproducible Results.

G.Fast Chipset Market by Deployment Type (DPU and CPE), End User (Residential, and Enterprise/Commercial), Copper-Line Length (Lines Shorter Than 100 Meters, Lines Of 100 Meters–150 Meters, Lines Longer Than 250 Meters) - Global Forecast to 2022

By: marketsandmarkets.com
Publishing Date: November 2016
Report Code: SE 4709  

The G.fast chipset market is expected to be worth USD 4,216.3 Million by 2022, at a CAGR of 116.5% between 2016 and 2022. The base year considered for the market estimation of the study is 2016 and the forecast period is between 2016 and 2022.

Objective of the Study:

  • To define, describe, and forecast the G.fast chipset market on the basis of copper-line length, deployment type, end user, and geography.
  • To forecast the market size in terms of value for various geographies with regard to four main regions—North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and RoW.
  • To provide detailed information regarding the major factors that influence the growth of the G.fast chipset market (drivers, restraints, opportunities, and industry-specific challenges).
  • To identify the major market trends and factors driving or restricting the growth of the G.fast chipset market and its various submarkets.
  • To analyze the Porter’s five forces framework in detail along with the value chain analysis of the G.fast chipset market
  • To analyze the opportunities in the G.fast market for stakeholders by identifying the high-growth segments of the G.fast chipset ecosystem.
  • To strategically profile the key players of the G.fast chipset market and comprehensively analyze their market position and core competencies.
  • To analyze competitive developments in the G.fast chipset market such as alliances, joint ventures, and mergers and acquisitions.

Research Methodology:

The research methodology used to estimate and forecast the G.fast chipset market commences with capturing data on key vendor revenues through secondary research from Company’s Annual Reports, SEC filings, Factiva, and Bloomberg. The vendor offerings are also taken into consideration to determine the market segmentation. The bottom-up procedure was employed to arrive at the overall market size of the global G.fast chipset market from the revenue of the key market players. After arriving at the overall market size, the total market has been split into several segments and subsegments, which were then verified through primary research by conducting extensive interviews with key people such as CEOs, VPs, directors, and executives. The data triangulation and market breakdown procedures have been employed to complete the overall market engineering process and arrive at the exact statistics for all segments and subsegments. The breakdown of the profiles of primary respondents has been depicted in the figure below:

G.Fast Chipset Market

To know about the assumptions considered for the study, download the pdf brochure

This report provides valuable insights into the ecosystem of the G.fast chipset market. The major players in this industry include Broadcom Ltd. (U.S.), Sckipio Technology SI Ltd., (Israel), Metanoia Communication Inc. (Taiwan), and Qualcomm, Inc. (U.S.).

Key Target Audience

  • G.fast chipset manufacturers
  • DSL chipset manufacturers
  • FTTH chips manufacturers
  • VDSL chipset manufacturers
  • Internet service providers
  • Broadband CPE and DPU manufacturers
  • Home gateway solution providers
  • Telecom service providers
  • Telecom regulatory firms
  • G.fast-related technology investors
  • G.fast-related industry research firms and associations 
  • DSL broadband technology researchers and developers

Scope of the Report:

The research report segments the G.fast chipset market into the following submarkets:

By Deployment:

  • Customer Premises Equipment (CPE)
  • Distribution Point Unit (DPU)

By End User:

  • Residential
  • Commercial/Enterprise

By Copper-Line Length:

  • Lines Shorter Than 100 Meters
  • Lines of 100 Meters–150 Meters
  • Lines of 150 Meters–200 Meters
  • Lines of 200 Meters–250 Meters
  • Lines Longer Than 250 Meters

By Geography:

  • North America
    • U.S.
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • U.K
    • Germany
    • France
    • Rest of Europe (Spain, Netherlands, and Finland)
  • Asia-Pacific (APAC)
    • Japan
    • China
    • Australia
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific (Australia, South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Singapore)
  • Rest of the World (RoW)
    • Israel
    • Others

Available Customizations:

Geographic Analysis

  • Further country-wise breakdown for APAC region
  • Further country-wise breakdown for Europe region
  • Further MDUs-wise breakup for CPE segment

Company Information

  • Detailed analysis and profiling of additional Internet service providers (Up to five)

 

 


212 GHz and cDTA are soon shipping from Adtran. True gigabit is here. Sales takeoff is almost in sight, probably Q1 2018.
Australia confirms 1M, AT&T is ready to ramp, DT finally is moving. Omantel and Telkom South Africa are now on the map. Almost all telcos are now choosing G.fast for large buildings when they don't go FTTH. MNet Cologne and Chunghwa Taiwan have changed from fiber all the way to G.fast in the basement.

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran http://bit.ly/GF212cDTA
Frank Miller of Century: G.fast Will be Important to Us http://bit.ly/GFCentury

Carl Russo: Since 2007, I've Been Turning Calix Into a Software Company http://bit.ly/CalixSDN

Adtran Chosen for Australia nbn Fiber to the curb. http://bit.ly/GFnabAus

nbn looking to a million lines. This one is big. Adtran is on a roll, with DT & AT&T also looking good for 2018.

1,400,000,000 In The Works. 1.4 Gigabits http://bit.ly/GF14Gig
South Africa & Connecticut Go Nokia http://bit.ly/SouthAF

Omantel: 90% Fiber & G.fast http://bit.ly/Omantel

 

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