spacer 2Telebyte Gfast Testing Guide 320

gfast map nov

Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Green: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, 

Abacus-from-WIkipedia-240Not a typographical error, unfortunately.  To reach the projected "USD 4,216.3 Million" in G.fast chip sales, chip price per home served would have to be $200  or so. That's ten times the price today in some markets, with every expectation the prices will go down over six years. (Moore's Law may be slowing but it isn't dead.) Save your $5650; an outfit called Markets and Markets has produced a work of low fantasy in the guise of a research "study."  Buy these folks a new abacus. They include estimates for Broadcom, Sckipio, and Metanoia, who recently demonstrated interoperability, as well as Qualcomm/Ikanos, shuttered months before the November 2016 report date.

They include estimates for Broadcom, Sckipio, and Metanoia, who recently demonstrated interoperability, as well as Qualcomm/Ikanos, shuttered months before the November 2016 report date. If G.fast chips were even a quarter the price implied, most companies would use either fiber home or supervectoring.

At a more realistic price of $20/port, it would require deploying 200M lines that year. Ovum estimates 11.5M G.fast connections in 2021, in a report paid for by British Telecom and Australia's nbn, both strong advocates.

That's higher than many estimates, although I can envision somewhat higher scenarios. It would be remarkable if 20M lines were connected in 2022.

Predictions about the future are hard - see Trump, Donald. Precision five years out on a technology barely out of the labs is impossible. Hitting the target within 10% would be remarkable here. The $4,216.3M estimated sales requires precision to less than 1/10 of 1%. My eight grade math teacher would have flunked me. 

A natural paper for The Journal of Irreproducible Results.

G.Fast Chipset Market by Deployment Type (DPU and CPE), End User (Residential, and Enterprise/Commercial), Copper-Line Length (Lines Shorter Than 100 Meters, Lines Of 100 Meters–150 Meters, Lines Longer Than 250 Meters) - Global Forecast to 2022

By: marketsandmarkets.com
Publishing Date: November 2016
Report Code: SE 4709  

The G.fast chipset market is expected to be worth USD 4,216.3 Million by 2022, at a CAGR of 116.5% between 2016 and 2022. The base year considered for the market estimation of the study is 2016 and the forecast period is between 2016 and 2022.

Objective of the Study:

  • To define, describe, and forecast the G.fast chipset market on the basis of copper-line length, deployment type, end user, and geography.
  • To forecast the market size in terms of value for various geographies with regard to four main regions—North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and RoW.
  • To provide detailed information regarding the major factors that influence the growth of the G.fast chipset market (drivers, restraints, opportunities, and industry-specific challenges).
  • To identify the major market trends and factors driving or restricting the growth of the G.fast chipset market and its various submarkets.
  • To analyze the Porter’s five forces framework in detail along with the value chain analysis of the G.fast chipset market
  • To analyze the opportunities in the G.fast market for stakeholders by identifying the high-growth segments of the G.fast chipset ecosystem.
  • To strategically profile the key players of the G.fast chipset market and comprehensively analyze their market position and core competencies.
  • To analyze competitive developments in the G.fast chipset market such as alliances, joint ventures, and mergers and acquisitions.

Research Methodology:

The research methodology used to estimate and forecast the G.fast chipset market commences with capturing data on key vendor revenues through secondary research from Company’s Annual Reports, SEC filings, Factiva, and Bloomberg. The vendor offerings are also taken into consideration to determine the market segmentation. The bottom-up procedure was employed to arrive at the overall market size of the global G.fast chipset market from the revenue of the key market players. After arriving at the overall market size, the total market has been split into several segments and subsegments, which were then verified through primary research by conducting extensive interviews with key people such as CEOs, VPs, directors, and executives. The data triangulation and market breakdown procedures have been employed to complete the overall market engineering process and arrive at the exact statistics for all segments and subsegments. The breakdown of the profiles of primary respondents has been depicted in the figure below:

G.Fast Chipset Market

To know about the assumptions considered for the study, download the pdf brochure

This report provides valuable insights into the ecosystem of the G.fast chipset market. The major players in this industry include Broadcom Ltd. (U.S.), Sckipio Technology SI Ltd., (Israel), Metanoia Communication Inc. (Taiwan), and Qualcomm, Inc. (U.S.).

Key Target Audience

  • G.fast chipset manufacturers
  • DSL chipset manufacturers
  • FTTH chips manufacturers
  • VDSL chipset manufacturers
  • Internet service providers
  • Broadband CPE and DPU manufacturers
  • Home gateway solution providers
  • Telecom service providers
  • Telecom regulatory firms
  • G.fast-related technology investors
  • G.fast-related industry research firms and associations 
  • DSL broadband technology researchers and developers

Scope of the Report:

The research report segments the G.fast chipset market into the following submarkets:

By Deployment:

  • Customer Premises Equipment (CPE)
  • Distribution Point Unit (DPU)

By End User:

  • Residential
  • Commercial/Enterprise

By Copper-Line Length:

  • Lines Shorter Than 100 Meters
  • Lines of 100 Meters–150 Meters
  • Lines of 150 Meters–200 Meters
  • Lines of 200 Meters–250 Meters
  • Lines Longer Than 250 Meters

By Geography:

  • North America
    • U.S.
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • U.K
    • Germany
    • France
    • Rest of Europe (Spain, Netherlands, and Finland)
  • Asia-Pacific (APAC)
    • Japan
    • China
    • Australia
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific (Australia, South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Singapore)
  • Rest of the World (RoW)
    • Israel
    • Others

Available Customizations:

Geographic Analysis

  • Further country-wise breakdown for APAC region
  • Further country-wise breakdown for Europe region
  • Further MDUs-wise breakup for CPE segment

Company Information

  • Detailed analysis and profiling of additional Internet service providers (Up to five)

 

 

The Site for gfast 230
 

G.fast News
A remarkable 400 people attended the very strong Broadband Forum BASE events in Berlin and Las Vegas. Trevor confirmed BT would pass the million this year. Cioffi projected “Waveguide DSL” could carry 10 gigabits a kilometer as well as a terabit 100 meters. Werner sees a 4X improvement in upstream with cDTA. Much more in next issue.

Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ
Deutsche Telekom is finally realizing that 50 megabit DSL won't make it against gigabit cable. VP Franz Seiser is blunt. "We must change radically, become disruptive and, above all, throw away things," he proclaims at BBWF. After years of DT insisting 50 megabits is plenty, we now hear "it is about Gigabit products" from DT's Robert Soukup.  
    A lucky building in Frankfurt will receive 500+ megabit service as ultra-conservative Deutsche Telekom experiments with G.fast. Soukup told BBWF, "We're going to have a field test in Frankfurt with G.fast and Fiber To The Building (FTTB.) We will know by the end of the year if this is the right way to go." Hint to Soukup: Yes it is. G.fast is working well at a dozen telcos I;ve talked to.
     The details are surprising. DT is going for CORD, Open Source, Calix, and Radisys. http://bit.ly/2zeZ5oZ

*** The new Telebyte Guide to Testing Gfast follows the Broadband Forum IR-337 Gfast test specification, the same used by the University of New Hampshire (UNH-IOL) for Gfast certification testing. Free download http://bit.ly/telebyte (ad) It is the best technical guide to G.fast  I have seen. Grab it. Dave

1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test http://bit.ly/Calix16
A telco tells me they are getting impressive early results from the Calix 48 port DSLAM with the new Sckipio 212 MHz chips. There still is work to do but this is encouraging. 
    Carriers want DSLAMs with more than 16 ports to reduce the deployment costs from the basement or larger field cabinets. Speed matters to the marketing side of the company; AT&T's CEO believes he must offer a true gigabit to match cable. (They've been getting ~750 megabits with first generation chips. http://bit.ly/Calix16

*** Self-Healing Wi-Fi With ASSIA Real-Q 
Beyond-the-Box visibility and control extends quality-of-experience (QoE) beyond the gateway to the end-user device for every device in the home. Based on ASSIA technology, proven across 80 million subscribers http://bit.ly/2dj7FJk (ad)

Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia http://bit.ly/NetcommRP
Australia is connecting 1M homes to G.fast, some with a Netcomm distribution point mini-DSLAM. It's a small unit designed for pole or pit mounting. It's waterproof, pressure proof, and temperature resistant. Their matching home modem is bittorrent friendly, with two USB ports for a hard drive dedicated to sharing.
     A reverse power unit at the customer, the NDD-0100-01, can save the cost of bringing power to the DSLAM. They don't expect many orders until the second half of 2018, as nbn is waiting for the second generation chips. Netcomm demonstrated RP with BT Openreach in August. http://bit.ly/NetcommRP

*** Sckipio's Three advances are taking G.fast to the next level.http://bit.ly/Sckipio (ad)

Australia Makes it Official: G.fast to Million Plus http://bit.ly/GFAussie
No news here. In September, 2015, I reported Australia's nbn Going G.fast. This June. I reported the million home fiber to the curb (kerb?) was beginning. Unfortunately, they are no closer to figuring out where to find the needed $10B to $20B to cover the cost overruns. Instead, the parties are battling in Parliament about who is to blame. http://bit.ly/GFAussie

2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabitshttp://bit.ly/twobonded
Sckipio at BBWF is demonstrating 3 gigabits down, nearly a gigabit up, over two phone lines, bonded. Twice the bandwidth (212 MHz instead of 106 MHz) times two lines is fast. Sckipio does great demos; at CES, they showed G.fast first generation chips delivering almost 1 gig upstream.
    “Sckipio is pushing Gfast to astonishing speeds with production silicon,” CEO David Baum proclaims. Calix is using the SCK23000 chipset in their 48 port gig+ DSLAM at the show. http://bit.ly/twobonded

Read more ...