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Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

Longer reach, reverse power, downloaded upgrades for the customer equipment, DTA over coax, and a dozen other improvements. The updated G.fast standard was pretty much agreed last week at an ITU SG-15 meeting in Geneva. The major chip vendors, Broadcom and Sckipio, are already hard at work. The carriers are hoping for equipment in the second half of 2017.

I have hundreds of pages of proposals from some very good engineers so this is just the first pass. Amendments one and two were approved. Amendment three was consented but very few changes are likely before final approval. 

BT needs longer reach. Their finance guys insist they use existing cabinets rather than building to the distribution points closer to the customer. G.fast was designed for 50-200 meters but existing cabinets are often 350 meters away or more. The new standard increases the maximum transmit power up to +8 dBm, with a practical goal of 300 megabits 300 meters. See BT G.fast Musts: ~ 350 meters, 48/96 ports. I didn't (yet) see anything about more ports, perhaps because that was possible without any updates. Broadcom had promised 96 port systems in Q4 2016 using external vectoring engines but the schedule has slipped. 

AT&T has been vocal they want a true gigabit to compete with cable, not "up to a gigabit." Comcast offers gigabit downstream in parts of Atlanta, Nashville, and Chicago, with Detroit scheduled next.

They are ready to go wide and have promised to offer the gigabit to more than 40M homes by 2018. For now, upstream is limited to 35 megabits; Jorge Salinger just predicted they will be bonding for 400 megabit upstream late next year. They aren't waiting for full duplex, still several years away. 

Cable versus telco is not the same thing as a monopoly. Larry Babbio told me they built FiOS because "We have to get cable out of the home." They were responding to Cablevision winning away customers in Long Island. Comcast came back by moving to DOCSIS 3 years before expected. In early 2015, AT&T was telling Wall Street  45 megabit U-Verse would be competitive. A few months later, they realized DOCSIS 3.1 was coming fast and they responded with a move for 12M lines of fiber. 
 
Our prices are 50% to 100% higher than more competitive countries in Europe, good evidence our competition is very weak. In practice, U.S. cable and telco have agreed to both raise prices regularly. No one needed to meet in obscure airport motels to form a cartel which would be illegal. Instead, they publicly signal. The competition authorities are afraid to bring a case like that to trial.
 
While they don't compete on price, they do upgrade technology to win or at least customers. Deutsche Telecom has a monopoly on four million German homes; they plan to offer maximum speeds of 3-6 megabits into the next decade. Across about a quarter of the U.S., the telcos have decided to abandon landlines and sell more wireless. Most of those can get cable, which covers 92% of the U.S. and have a robust but expensive choice. 

 

The amendments extend the frequency range up to 212 MHz. That will almost double speeds on very short loops, such as the apartment buildings AT&T is planning to serve. In an early draft, the committee chose to continue with linear precoding; I'm not sure about the final version but it's probably the same. 

There are many pages of new specifications for reverse power, downloaded upgrades of customer equipment, and signaling. I'm sure I'll be finding more items as I make my way through the documents. I'm not sure whether the proposal for more bits per signal was included. Pointers welcome.

The next meeting will be 14-18 November in Hangzhou, hosted by Huawei.


212 GHz and cDTA are soon shipping from Adtran. True gigabit is here. Sales takeoff is almost in sight, probably Q1 2018.
Australia confirms 1M, AT&T is ready to ramp, DT finally is moving. Omantel and Telkom South Africa are now on the map. Almost all telcos are now choosing G.fast for large buildings when they don't go FTTH. MNet Cologne and Chunghwa Taiwan have changed from fiber all the way to G.fast in the basement.

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran http://bit.ly/GF212cDTA
Frank Miller of Century: G.fast Will be Important to Us http://bit.ly/GFCentury

Carl Russo: Since 2007, I've Been Turning Calix Into a Software Company http://bit.ly/CalixSDN

Adtran Chosen for Australia nbn Fiber to the curb. http://bit.ly/GFnabAus

nbn looking to a million lines. This one is big. Adtran is on a roll, with DT & AT&T also looking good for 2018.

1,400,000,000 In The Works. 1.4 Gigabits http://bit.ly/GF14Gig
South Africa & Connecticut Go Nokia http://bit.ly/SouthAF

Omantel: 90% Fiber & G.fast http://bit.ly/Omantel

 

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