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gfast map nov

Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Pink: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

DT is not delivering. They already are far behind schedule for the 24M homes they promised to pass with 100 megabit service. They also reduced the minimum speed to 50 megabits and do not even guarantee that speed. They hide behind almost meaningless "up to" figures; America now requires "typical speeds" and Britain wants to do likewise. DT has given us no reason to believe even a quarter of the vectored lines will deliver 100 megabits. 

This is a financial, not a technical problem. The G.vector they are using provides 100 megabits to many in Belgium and 80 megabits to most. The technology is generally working fine, although DT has cut some corners. It's possible DT's engineers misestimated what the speeds would be. It's also possible that the original claims of 100 megabits were a "politician's truth." More likely, they've cut the numbers of cabinets and the fiber extensions. (DT has excellent engineers who are current with the state of the art. I doubt they made a mistake.)

DT's CEO Höttges' comments would make super-spinner Karl Rove proud.

He discussed Supervectoring at 250 megabits for 2018 as though most homes would be upgraded to get to that speed. SV uses higher frequencies (up to 35 MHz,) where performance falls off very rapidly. Most homes are unlikely to get 250 meg even in the best case. at 500 meg, also discussed by Höttges, is even less relevant today unless DT offers concrete deployment plans. CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn a while back surprised the industry by promising deployments starting in 2015. He was misinformed initially on the schedule. Later, the company decided to go with the cheaper but slower vectored VDSL.


35b "supervectoring" was announced by Alcatel and Huawei for shipment this year. Since then, everything went silent. So I wasn't surprised when DT said they wouldn't offer 35b until 2018, two years behind schedule. DT and the vendors claim speeds of 250 megabits down, When we get realworld results, I expect very few if any customers will get that kind of speed. As the butcher said, "If I had any steaks, I'd gladly sell them to you at that price." It is very easy to make claims about things you don't have available to sell.

AVM, a respected German modem maker, announced the FRITZ! Box 7581. They claim, "By bonding the usable data rate increases to existing copper lines up to 240 MBit / s.Through the additional combination of bonding and vectoring the possible transmission rates can be even up to 300 MBit / s increase." At face value, that suggests SV will be 40% slower than claimed. We'll see when things ship.

DT remains one of the best engineering outfits in the world and shouldn't be delivering some of the worst broadband.


Deutsche Telekom invests for customers and in broadband in Germany

May 04, 2016

  • Five million fiber-optic lines (VDSL/vectoring and FTTH) installed for branded customers and competitors in Germany
  • Capital expenditure (excluding spectrum) up 11.9 percent to 2.8 billion euros in the first quarter
  • Revenue up 4.7 percent to 17.6 billion euros
  • Adjusted EBITDA up 12.9 percent to 5.2 billion euros
  • Net profit quadrupled to 3.1 billion euros
  • Positive effect on earnings of 2.5 billion euros from sale of stake in EE joint venture

The gigabit society needs a high-performance, integrated network. Deutsche Telekom is gradually laying the foundation for this. In the first quarter of 2016, for example, the Group passed the mark of five million fiber-optic lines (VDSL/vectoring and FTTH) in Germany. "We are rapidly bringing Germany into the high-speed age," said CEO Timotheus Höttges, pointing to record growth of 660,000 new fiber-optic lines in the first quarter of 2016 alone. "Our integrated 5G network of tomorrow with low latencies and high bandwidths is opening up the digital future to Europe. We have a clear timetable on our way toward the gigabit society. Our next goal is the federal government's broadband target for 2018. We are also taking our competitors along with us on this road," stressed Höttges. Of the five million lines, more than 1.7 million are leased by competitors and marketed under their own brands. With its role at the forefront of the next-generation 5G mobile communications standard, Deutsche Telekom is on track to maintain its network leadership into the future as well.

This means that Deutsche Telekom is continuing on its path to becoming Europe's leading telecommunications company in this area too. The Group invested 2.8 billion euros (excluding mobile spectrum expenses) worldwide in the core elements of integrated networks on the basis of IP and best customer experience in the first quarter, 11.9 percent more than in the same period of the prior year. This paid off with positive trends in customer numbers and consequently in revenue and earnings growth. Net revenue increased by 4.7 percent to 17.6 billion euros. Adjusted EBITDA climbed by 12.9 percent to 5.2 billion euros. As a result of the higher cash capex, depreciation of property, plant, and equipment also increased substantially such that, below the line, adjusted net profit rose by 1.1 percent to 1.0 billion euros.

By contrast, reported net profit quadrupled to 3.1 billion euros. This increase was mainly driven by the sale of Deutsche Telekom's stake in the EE joint venture to the British company BT, which contributed earnings of 2.5 billion euros. The increase in cash capex resulted in a moderate decline in free cash flow by 5 percent to 0.8 billion euros.

The Group confirmed both its guidance for the financial targets for 2016 and its medium-term outlook for 2014 to 2018.

Record growth in fiber-optic lines in Germany

Cash capex in the Germany segment stood at 0.9 billion euros in the first quarter, down 4.3 percent year-on-year due to a decrease in construction activity compared to the prior-year quarter, caused by higher levels of precipitation. For the full year 2016, Telekom Deutschland plans to further increase cash capex against the 4.0 billion euros of the previous year. Under the integrated network strategy, fiber-optic coverage increased by another 4 million households year-on-year as of the end of the first quarter of 2016, to a total of 23.7 million. The LTE network reached population coverage of 91 percent compared with 82 percent a year earlier. Another 3.5 million lines of branded customers and leased by competitors were converted to IP technology.

In the Germany business, the growth in fiber-optic lines in the first quarter was outstanding at 660,000. Of these new lines, 363,000 related to branded customers and 297,000 to wholesale business, the vast majority under the contingent model. Thus, competitors increased their demand for Deutsche Telekom's fiber-optic lines by more than three quarters compared with the first three months of 2015.

Due to the strong demand for fiber-optic lines, the number of branded broadband customers grew considerably by a net 62,000 in the quarter. Combined with another 53,000 new customers for Entertain, this contributed to increasing overall broadband revenue in the Germany segment by 1.8 percent. Thus, the positive revenue trend of the last few quarters continued to accelerate in this area. The high demand from competitors for fiber-optic lines increased wholesale revenue by 2.9 percent in the first quarter.

In mobile communications, Deutsche Telekom maintained its market lead in service revenues. 231,000 new contract customers is a decline against the prior-year quarter, which however was positively affected by reclassifications in connection with the new Multibrand unit. Of the 1.7 percent decline in mobile service revenues, discounts in connection with MagentaEINS accounted for a good percentage point. Increased competitive pressure in the business customer market is depressing revenues across the entire sector. Nevertheless, taking this factor into account, the service revenues performed somewhat better than the overall market.

Segment revenue fell by 2.5 percent overall, to 5.5 billion euros. Half of this decrease is attributable to the reduction in the low-margin distribution business with mobile devices. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 1.4 percent to 2.2 billion euros.s distance, up to 500 Mbit / s at 100 meters and up to 1 Gbit / s at 100 meters. In a Swisscom-test with customers in the municipality Biberen in a "real environment" are "285-402 Mbit / s downstream and 85-109 Mbits / s measured upstream" been said a spokesman. "The speed is of course depends on the length of the copper cable. "

The Telekom and Nokia had in February 2016 is shown in a laboratory test , as data transfer rates of more than 11 Gbit / s can be achieved in the copper network with technology XG-Fast. It is a download speed of more than 11 Gbit / s has been achieved in two 50-meter long, bundled pairs of high-quality cable at the top. With the limitation to 50 or 70 meters is XG-Fast from today's perspective, but only one in-house technology.

The Site for gfast 230 News

I’m still working through remarkable presentations from the Broadband Forum events. Michael Weissman, Bernd Hesse and team did a remarkable job choosing the speakers.

Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. 35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. 

The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on. Broadcom in 2015 said 35b was in "production" in the press release below. Alcatel in early 2016 said to expect complete systems very soon. "35g is very similar to 17a so there should be little delay."

Broadcom's problems are leading major telcos and vendors to have a plan B, using Sckipio DT itself is planning extensive deployments in 2019, mostly in apartment buildings.

Gigabit 100 Meters - Unless the Wires are Lousy
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. 

His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both & vectored DSL. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.

Rami's solution to reach the gigabit is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips. Verbin made some additional points:

  • 4 gigabits is possible by bonding two decent 2 gigabit lines.
  • Even in a service from remote cabinets, ~25% are close enough to get a full gigabit."
  • cDTA and iDTA are practical ways to deliver much higher upstream by switching some bandwidth from downstream to upstream only when needed.
  • 35B will probably be similar but Deutsche Telecom doesn't expect to deploy until 2019.

AT&T Wants Coax 2-5 Gigabit Very Soon.
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.

AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits. The ITU standards group has been aiming for 2019-2020 for G.mgfast, too slow for AT&T's marketers. David Titus wants a high-speed standard for coax "early in 2018." He believes that is "doable."

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