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Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

Balin-NairBudget guys refuse to service the 4 million distribution points across the UK. BT's CIO, Peter Bell, publicly confirmed what the industry has speculated since last spring: BT is not planning fiber to the distribution point. G.fast was designed for distribution points, up to 16 homes very close to the DP. That was BT's plan until the budget people got involved. Now, because of budget limits, BT intends to reduce the number of locations serving G.fast by 94-97%.

Bell's comments imply that France Telecom and Telefonica are facing severe financial distress. Fiber all the way home costs more than FTTdp. Telefonica has reached 15M homes with direct fiber. France Telecom has reached 5M fiber homes passed already, including most of Paris. They plan >2M more homes each year until 2022. Neither analysts nor investors predict a financial calamity. ORAN and TEF have a market cap of $94B.

BT hopes most customers will get 300 megabits rather than the 500-800 G.fast was designed for. Some customers will be very disappointed when they discover "superfast broadband" is slow to their home.

At Light Reading's Gigabit Europe event, "Bell says the economics of that approach are untenable, with BT currently maintaining around 4 million distribution points across the UK. Instead the operator is looking to provide G.fast from many of its 90,000 street cabinets up and down the country."

Millions of homes are too far from the street cabinets to get decent data rates by today's standards. BT, like most telcos, would rather have 10% of customers angry rather than spend the money to give everyone decent service. Half of the homes in the country has no cable, so they have no choice but to pay BT what they ask.

 

BT could be in trouble in the half of the country they face Virgin Cable. Balin Nair is putting gigabit gear in place. They also are doing 1M fiber homes and several million more DOCSIS. BT is essentially betting people will not switch for faster speeds. That sounds risky to most tech enthusiasts but AT&T proved with U-Verse that speed wasn't everything.

Iain Morris of Light Reading and Ray Le Maistre has been doing consistently accurate reporting on G.fast. Morris was on target putting a question mark on his 2014 article, G.fast: The Dawn of Gigabit Copper?  In 2016, production G.fast systems fall short of the gigabit.  

If BT released to me or OFCOM the data behind Bell's comment, I'd bet we could show that the Openreach price increases more than cover the cost of 500 megabit+ service. 

The picture is Liberty Global CTO Balan Nair, who is expanding Virgin's coverage rapidly. He know the telco side of the business as well; when I first met him he was CTO of Qwset.


212 GHz and cDTA are soon shipping from Adtran. True gigabit is here. Sales takeoff is almost in sight, probably Q1 2018.
Australia confirms 1M, AT&T is ready to ramp, DT finally is moving. Omantel and Telkom South Africa are now on the map. Almost all telcos are now choosing G.fast for large buildings when they don't go FTTH. MNet Cologne and Chunghwa Taiwan have changed from fiber all the way to G.fast in the basement.

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran http://bit.ly/GF212cDTA
Frank Miller of Century: G.fast Will be Important to Us http://bit.ly/GFCentury

Carl Russo: Since 2007, I've Been Turning Calix Into a Software Company http://bit.ly/CalixSDN

Adtran Chosen for Australia nbn Fiber to the curb. http://bit.ly/GFnabAus

nbn looking to a million lines. This one is big. Adtran is on a roll, with DT & AT&T also looking good for 2018.

1,400,000,000 In The Works. 1.4 Gigabits http://bit.ly/GF14Gig
South Africa & Connecticut Go Nokia http://bit.ly/SouthAF

Omantel: 90% Fiber & G.fast http://bit.ly/Omantel

 

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