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Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Pink: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

chunghwaBT calls 4,000 a trial but Alcatel calls similar at Chunghwa "first commercial deployment." Whatever you call it, G.fast is here, with about 10,000 lines about to be installed. Rami Verbin of Sckipio told me the real growth won't come until 2016 and it looks like he was on track. A couple of years ago, Chunghwa promised to spend $3B to bring "fiber" to 97% of premises by 2015. but Tony Brown reports only 200,000 true fiber to the home lines by the middle of this year. 

The embarrassing delay gives them incentive to make stronger claims than BT. Taiwan is probably not connecting significantly more lines this year than England. Everyone knows this is early equipment likely to need debugging. The average Taiwanese will get higher speeds than the average Brit because there are far more apartments dwellers in Taiwan. The English love their gardens. From the basement, speeds will often be 400-700 megabits down. 

Britain originally planned to bring 400-700 megabits to most homes but decided not to spend the money on the million+ field units that would require. Instead, they will run G.halffast, the same gear but over longer runs from the (much fewer) existing cabinets. The official word is that they will reach 300-500 megabits combined upstream and downstream. I'll call it 250 meg down until proven otherwise. 

 

Alcatel-Lucent and Chunghwa Telecom launch world's first commercial deployment of G.fast ultra-broadband access technology in TaiwanTens of thousands of homes to benefit from innovation which combines fiber and copper technologies to meet demand for high-speed access quickly and cost-efficiently

PARIS, Sept. 14, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Alcatel-Lucent (Euronext Paris and NYSE: ALU) and Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan's leading service provider, are to commence the world's first commercial deployment of G.fast ultra-broadband access technology, allowing the acceleration of 'last mile' connectivity to deliver ultra-fast fiber-like speeds to households everywhere.

Currently 68% of homes in Taiwan enjoy broadband cable for Internet access. However, with growing demand for 4K TV and streaming HD video services, the need for ultra-broadband access is steadily increasing. To address this need, Chunghwa Telecom is conducting a nationwide roll-out of FTTx (fiber-to-the-premises) infrastructure to residential and business customers using a combination of fiber and copper technology. To accelerate these deployments and enable the delivery of near-gigabit speeds, Chungwa Telecom will deploy Alcatel-Lucent's GPON and G.fast technologies.

Alcatel-Lucent and its Bell Labs research arm have played a pioneering role in the development and implementation of G.fast, which has already been in trials with more than 30 operators worldwide. G.fast, in particular, allows service providers to provide ultra-broadband access to locations where fiber deployment is difficult, using the final length of copper infrastructure extending into premises to deliver ultra-high speeds. Additionally, G.fast eliminates the need to rewire entire buildings and homes, the most costly and time consuming part of any FTTx deployment.

The combination of fiber and G.fast will enable Chunghwa Telecom to quickly provide fast broadband to tens of thousands of homes in Taiwan within two years, and also meet the country's National Communications Commission plan to improve fixed broadband access in hard-to-reach residential locations. Chunghwa Telecom will launch ultra-broadband services using G.fast to the 8.4 million Taiwanese homes, low- and high-rise buildings in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Key Facts:

Quotes:

Mu-Piao ShihPresident of Chunghwa Telecom said: "We have made great strides in proactively improving our broadband network service in recent years, and we are pleased to become the first G.fast commercial broadband service provider in the world. With Alcatel-Lucent's G.fast technology we will be well equipped to launch a ultra high-speed network service toward the end of this year and offer our customers the highest broadband service experience, thereby solidifying our leadership in the fiber optics broadband service market ranging from 100Mbps to 1Gbps."

Ken Wu, President and Managing Director of Alcatel-Lucent Taiwan said: "As innovators in ultra-broadband fixed access, Alcatel-Lucent was the first company to bring G.fast to the market. For the past year we have been working with leading operators around the world to trial the technology.

"At the end of last year, Bell Labs, the research arm of Alcatel-Lucent launched the technology to upgrade the transmission speed of traditional copper telephone lines to 10Gbps. This year, the Taiwanese market has already rapidly introduced the latest technology and launched commercial services ahead of other markets to enable the consumers in Taiwan to experience CHT's G.Fast ultra-high-speed broadband service. Today we are happy to see Chunghwa Telecom take a pioneering role and become the world's first operator to deploy it commercially. By adding our G.fast technology to its portfolio, Chunghwa Telecom can better meet the demands of any deployment scenario to quickly and cost-effectively connect customers with the highest speeds in a highly competitive market."

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G.fast News

I’m still working through remarkable presentations from the Broadband Forum events. Michael Weissman, Bernd Hesse and team did a remarkable job choosing the speakers. http://bit.ly/BBFBASE

Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019 http://bit.ly/35blater
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. 35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. 

The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on. Broadcom in 2015 said 35b was in "production" in the press release below. Alcatel in early 2016 said to expect complete systems very soon. "35g is very similar to 17a so there should be little delay."

Broadcom's problems are leading major telcos and vendors to have a plan B, using Sckipio G.fast. DT itself is planning extensive G.fast deployments in 2019, mostly in apartment buildings. http://bit.ly/35blater

Gigabit 100 Meters - Unless the Wires are Lousy http://bit.ly/gflousy
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds G.fast goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. 

His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both G.fast & vectored DSL. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.

Rami's solution to reach the gigabit is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips. Verbin made some additional points:

  • 4 gigabits is possible by bonding two decent 2 gigabit lines.
  • Even in a service from remote cabinets, ~25% are close enough to get a full gigabit."
  • cDTA and iDTA are practical ways to deliver much higher upstream by switching some bandwidth from downstream to upstream only when needed.
  • 35B will probably be similar but Deutsche Telecom doesn't expect to deploy until 2019. http://bit.ly/gflousy

AT&T Wants Coax 2-5 Gigabit G.fast. Very Soon. http://bit.ly/ATTCoax
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.

AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits. The ITU standards group has been aiming for 2019-2020 for G.mgfast, too slow for AT&T's marketers. David Titus wants a high-speed standard for coax "early in 2018." He believes that is "doable."http://bit.ly/ATTCoax

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