august
Dark blue: 
Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Swisscom,                                          Ad from Sckipio
Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Korea SK, (U.S.) Century & Windstream
Light blue: Smaller carriers: Canada, Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
Green: Incumbent likely: France, Germany, Australia, Poland & Panama                                    
Below: Country by country details. 

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Not a gigabit but pretty darn good. AT&T, assured the DirecTV merger is going through, is about to go public with the long-planned upgrade of ~5M U-Verse homes to hundreds of megabits. They will take four years and reach about 15% of their homes. Gigabit gear won't be available for several years.

Randall Stephenson in 2004 told Wall Street AT&T was using fiber, not copper, for all “new builds,” although I believe it took a few more years. “New builds” are 1-2% of the network each year. That suggests four million to eight million homes are ready with FTTB.

With most of the construction already done, the upgrade will easily fit in AT&T reduced capital budget. I estimate G.fast will cost $75-250 per home passed. The cost over four years is is only a few % of annual capex and will be recovered in months from customer charges. It would be stupid not to upgrade and AT&T's top management isn't stupid.  

The 400-700 megabit down speed of today's G.fast is confirmed by the early field trials. I previously reported that Swisscom, "Gets between 285 and 402 Mbps downstream and between 85 and 109 Mbps upstream. Results depend on copper cable length: on short copper cables (ca 24 meters) we were even able to reach 624 Mbps Downstream / 151 Mbps Upstream in field but without connected customers." Telekom Austria measured 536 megabits down and 116 up.

The chart below, from Alcatel, shows combined upstream and downstream speeds in early testing. Combined, the speeds up to 150 meters are 500-800 megabits. Subtracting 100 megabits for the upstream yields 400-700 megabits downstream, what I had estimated from a different data set.

Telcos in France, England, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Belgium, Canada and across the U.S. are scrambling to upgrade to counter the gigabit coming from cable. 

Separately, The “concession” of offering LTE “broadband lite” to 13M ? homes is more stage magic. AT&T has already built the LTE network for 97-98% of the U.S. and is already serving these areas. These are mostly rural or semi-rural homes where AT&T has unused capacity on the LTE network and isn't even using most of their spectrum. Some people think these are homes unserved by broadband. That's highly unlikely since there are only about 5M “unserved” homes in the U.S. Most of those 5M unserved are in the same extremely small pockets where LTE also isn't offered. 

From Alcatel, a rate reach diagram for G.fast. 

Alcatel G.fast speed data

 

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Latest
BT: G.fast performance "pretty much spot on"
DSM Could Increase G.fast Speeds 25-50+ Megabit
DT: No 35b VDSL before 2018, modems not available
AT&T G.fast confirmed (unofficially.)
Andrew Ferguson: DSLAMs can be different
Energia Selling Nokia G.fast in Japan
Calix Clobbered by Services Cost
Switzerland: We're going G.fast; Forget fiber home except in new builds 
Nokia takes XG-FAST to 8 gig in the lab at nbn 
Huawei jumping in to G.faster 
Paris G.fast Summit 2017 9 to 11 May will be a great show
100,000 G.fast modems sold by Technicolor - running VDSL Australia: 
700,000 "FTTdp homes." Should use G.fast but may go VDSL. 
Tens of millions G.fast lines predicted 
"Study" predicts $200/line G.fast chip price in 2022 !? 

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