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gfast map nov

Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Pink: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

Bugatti Veyron by Huntster'10 Gbps, yikes!" writes a senior engineer after reading my story about 10 gig homes in Hong Kong. "Do the customers with 10 Gbps access also own a 1001 Horsepower Bugatti Veryon car?  I wish someone would do a blind scientific study of the highest access bit-rate for which 99.5% of customers could not perceive any improvement in service.  Of course, speed-test would have to be disabled.  At some point, the speed will be limited by other factors: application software, LAN, performance of the customer device, server capacity, or the customer’s visual cortex.  Seriously, how fast can you drink from a fire-hose? 

Another fascinating statistic would be the highest data rate actually consumed by customers who have an access service with 200 Mb/s or more.  This does not mean that marketing higher bit rates is wrong; after all there is a proven market for cars with more than 400 Horsepower." Talking to a reporter could be "career limiting" at the gentleman's company.

What presumably happened in Hong Kong is the vendor (?Huawei) offered PCCW a great deal on 10 gig equipment in order to create a model deployment. Now that the chips for 10 gig are shipping, 10 gig doesn't have to be that much more expensive than 1 gig.

1 gig is becoming the usual speed on new networks because today there is little difference in cost between 1 gig and 100 megabits. There'd be a natural $20-60 premium for 10 gig gear but prices are negotiable.

In Korea for the ITU Plenipot, I asked a dozen officials what Koreans are doing with the gigabit service they are getting? Most avoided the question. A few said, "I don't know." The best answer was, "They buy the gigabit for prestige."

At the same event, a Korean telco had a display of their 10 gigabit system, soon come. 


The Site for gfast 230 News

I’m still working through remarkable presentations from the Broadband Forum events. Michael Weissman, Bernd Hesse and team did a remarkable job choosing the speakers.

Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. 35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. 

The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on. Broadcom in 2015 said 35b was in "production" in the press release below. Alcatel in early 2016 said to expect complete systems very soon. "35g is very similar to 17a so there should be little delay."

Broadcom's problems are leading major telcos and vendors to have a plan B, using Sckipio DT itself is planning extensive deployments in 2019, mostly in apartment buildings.

Gigabit 100 Meters - Unless the Wires are Lousy
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. 

His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both & vectored DSL. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.

Rami's solution to reach the gigabit is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips. Verbin made some additional points:

  • 4 gigabits is possible by bonding two decent 2 gigabit lines.
  • Even in a service from remote cabinets, ~25% are close enough to get a full gigabit."
  • cDTA and iDTA are practical ways to deliver much higher upstream by switching some bandwidth from downstream to upstream only when needed.
  • 35B will probably be similar but Deutsche Telecom doesn't expect to deploy until 2019.

AT&T Wants Coax 2-5 Gigabit Very Soon.
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.

AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits. The ITU standards group has been aiming for 2019-2020 for G.mgfast, too slow for AT&T's marketers. David Titus wants a high-speed standard for coax "early in 2018." He believes that is "doable."

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