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Gfast map July 2017

Dark blue: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Light blue: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, & Poland  

august
Dark blue: 
Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Swisscom,                                          Ad from Sckipio
Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Korea SK, (U.S.) Century & Windstream
Light blue: Smaller carriers: Canada, Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan
Green: Incumbent likely: France, Germany, Australia, Poland & Panama                                    
Below: Country by country details. 

Britain: 10M by 2020, most of the country by 2025. 4,000 home test expanding to 25,000. Wanted to deploy Q4 2016 if equipment ready, but delayed to 2nd half 2017. They are not going to the distribution points, merely upgrading existing cabinets. Speeds of 100-400 megabits rather than 500-800. DPU from Nokia and Huawei. The Brits love their gardens; only 11% live in apartments. (as of 7.15)

AT&T: Originally set to deploy q1 2017, target in the millions. Still evaluating where to do fiber home and where G.fast. Adtran's strong relationship with AT&T gives Adtran/Sckipio the inside track. Alcatel is hopeful.

Chunghwa Taiwan: Abandoned promised fiber home build for G.fast in early 2016. With Alcatel, they declared G.fast deployment underway. There's no evidence of more than a trial. The country is mostly apartment buildings, natural for G.fast.

SK Korea: CEO in June 2016 said they would upgrade to 500 megabit G.fast in June of 2016. No details yet.

Japan: Millions of lines of "fiber" are fiber to the basement plus VDSL to the apartments. Qualcomm/Ikanos had a likely lock on this. Centillium, now part of Ikanos, worked with the Japanese from the beginning and owns the market. They've added features to G.fast to work well with Japan's 30a VDSL. Now, it's up for grabs with Sckipio also supporting the 30a. 

Austria, Switzerland, Belgium (Proximus): All doing multi-technologies, depending on terrain, population density, and facilities in place. Fiber home, basement, distribution point, and node in different areas. All have active trials going well. 

Telus, Western Canada: CTO Ibrahim Gideon is a proud early adopter and will probably be one of the first here.

NetCologne, Germany: Moving rapidly to > 300,000. Municipally owned with expansion plans nearby.

France Telecom/Orange: Lots of fiber but they also intend to use G.fast from the basement in many buildings. Customers are unhappy with fiber construction in some buildings. Orange is looking to save money in others.

Orange Poland: Has begun deploying G.fast but says it will only be used where fiber home is impractical.

Panama: Cable company Liberty Global owns a phone company and they have announced G.fast. 

Windstream: A mostly Southern U.S. regional with ~1M DSL customers. CEO Tony Thomas tells investors G.fast is coming in 2017. They will have a hard time financing much of a build, however; they are carrying $10B of debt with <$1B of equity.

Century: After absorbing Qwest, passes 20M homes. Confirmed deployment.

Israel: Bezeq is firm.

Japan: Nokia announced Enecom would begin G.fast in June, 2016. I haven't confirmed this yet. 

Norway: Homenet/Broadnet intends to use G.fast for local connections from the 40,000 kilometers of fiber.

Highly likely

Germany: DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn told a reporter they would begin G.fast in 2015. He misspoke, as his staff told him when he returned to the office. Then the money side of the house spoke up. DT earnings haven't covered their dividends the last few years and they have a very limited budget. Meanwhile, the German government has allocated $4B for broadband, most of which will be subsidies to the companies for profitable upgrades. Looking for that money, DT has allowed their broadband upgrades to fall behind plan about two years. Politics.

Australia: The NBN knows G.fast is the right choice in some districts. They've done costing and advanced trials. Again, politics intrude. NBN is yet again over budget and looking to government to make up the shortfall. They are using G.fast as a bargaining chip.

U.S. Regionals (Frontier etc.):  With nearly ubiquitous cable competition, most of it going to a gigabit, these folks have to do something. Plenty of apartment buildings in all territories. August 10: Century is confirmed, 

Elisa Finland: A mobile carrier with 1.4M customers. They have reached 880 megabits in G.fast trials and have told investors they intend to deploy. The regulator hasn't set the rules for using the frequencies, however. 

Telefonica Italy: Reported likely in 2017 by LR, Telecom Italia is reported to have plans.

 

 


212 GHz and cDTA are soon shipping from Adtran. True gigabit is here. Sales takeoff is almost in sight, probably Q1 2018.
Australia confirms 1M, AT&T is ready to ramp, DT finally is moving. Omantel and Telkom South Africa are now on the map. Almost all telcos are now choosing G.fast for large buildings when they don't go FTTH. MNet Cologne and Chunghwa Taiwan have changed from fiber all the way to G.fast in the basement.

212 MHz and cDTA Are Ready: Adtran http://bit.ly/GF212cDTA
Frank Miller of Century: G.fast Will be Important to Us http://bit.ly/GFCentury

Carl Russo: Since 2007, I've Been Turning Calix Into a Software Company http://bit.ly/CalixSDN

Adtran Chosen for Australia nbn Fiber to the curb. http://bit.ly/GFnabAus

nbn looking to a million lines. This one is big. Adtran is on a roll, with DT & AT&T also looking good for 2018.

1,400,000,000 In The Works. 1.4 Gigabits http://bit.ly/GF14Gig
South Africa & Connecticut Go Nokia http://bit.ly/SouthAF

Omantel: 90% Fiber & G.fast http://bit.ly/Omantel

 

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