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gfast map nov

Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Green: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, 

Britain: 10M by 2020, most of the country by 2025. 4,000 home test expanding to 25,000. Wanted to deploy Q4 2016 if equipment ready, but delayed to 2nd half 2017. They are not going to the distribution points, merely upgrading existing cabinets. Speeds of 100-400 megabits rather than 500-800. DPU from Nokia and Huawei. The Brits love their gardens; only 11% live in apartments. (as of 7.15) AT&T: Originally set to deploy q1 2017, target in the millions. Still evaluating where to do fiber home and where Adtran's strong relationship with AT&T gives Adtran/Sckipio the inside track. Alcatel is hopeful. Chunghwa Taiwan: Abandoned promised fiber home build for in early 2016. With Alcatel, they declared deployment underway. There's no evidence of more than a trial. The country is mostly apartment buildings, natural for SK Korea: CEO in June 2016 said they would upgrade to 500 megabit in June of 2016. No details yet. Japan: Millions of lines of "fiber" are fiber to the basement plus VDSL to the apartments. Qualcomm/Ikanos had a likely lock on this. Centillium, now part of Ikanos, worked with the Japanese from the beginning and owns the market. They've added features to to work well with Japan's 30a VDSL. Now, it's up for grabs with Sckipio also supporting the 30a. Austria, Switzerland, Belgium (Proximus): All doing multi-technologies, depending on terrain, population density, and facilities in place. Fiber home, basement, distribution point, and node in different areas. All have active trials going well. Telus, Western Canada: CTO Ibrahim Gideon is a proud early adopter and will probably be one of the first here. NetCologne, Germany: Moving rapidly to > 300,000. Municipally owned with expansion plans nearby. France Telecom/Orange: Lots of fiber but they also intend to use from the basement in many buildings. Customers are unhappy with fiber construction in some buildings. Orange is looking to save money in others. Orange Poland: Has begun deploying but says it will only be used where fiber home is impractical. Panama: Cable company Liberty Global owns a phone company and they have announced Windstream: A mostly Southern U.S. regional with ~1M DSL customers. CEO Tony Thomas tells investors is coming in 2017. They will have a hard time financing much of a build, however; they are carrying $10B of debt with <$1B of equity. Century: After absorbing Qwest, passes 20M homes. Confirmed deployment. Israel: Bezeq is firm. Japan: Nokia announced Enecom would begin in June, 2016. I haven't confirmed this yet. Norway: Homenet/Broadnet intends to use for local connections from the 40,000 kilometers of fiber. Highly likely Germany: DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn told a reporter they would begin in 2015. He misspoke, as his staff told him when he returned to the office. Then the money side of the house spoke up. DT earnings haven't covered their dividends the last few years and they have a very limited budget. Meanwhile, the German government has allocated $4B for broadband, most of which will be subsidies to the companies for profitable upgrades. Looking for that money, DT has allowed their broadband upgrades to fall behind plan about two years. Politics. Australia: The NBN knows is the right choice in some districts. They've done costing and advanced trials. Again, politics intrude. NBN is yet again over budget and looking to government to make up the shortfall. They are using as a bargaining chip. U.S. Regionals (Frontier etc.): With nearly ubiquitous cable competition, most of it going to a gigabit, these folks have to do something. Plenty of apartment buildings in all territories. August 10: Century is confirmed, Elisa Finland: A mobile carrier with 1.4M customers. They have reached 880 megabits in trials and have told investors they intend to deploy. The regulator hasn't set the rules for using the frequencies, however. Telefonica Italy: Reported likely in 2017 by LR, Telecom Italia is reported to have plans.

The Site for gfast 230 News
A remarkable 400 people attended the very strong Broadband Forum BASE events in Berlin and Las Vegas. Trevor confirmed BT would pass the million this year. Cioffi projected “Waveguide DSL” could carry 10 gigabits a kilometer as well as a terabit 100 meters. Werner sees a 4X improvement in upstream with cDTA. Much more in next issue.

Deutsche Wants a Gigabit, Finally Realizes 50 Meg Isn't Enough
Deutsche Telekom is finally realizing that 50 megabit DSL won't make it against gigabit cable. VP Franz Seiser is blunt. "We must change radically, become disruptive and, above all, throw away things," he proclaims at BBWF. After years of DT insisting 50 megabits is plenty, we now hear "it is about Gigabit products" from DT's Robert Soukup.  
    A lucky building in Frankfurt will receive 500+ megabit service as ultra-conservative Deutsche Telekom experiments with Soukup told BBWF, "We're going to have a field test in Frankfurt with and Fiber To The Building (FTTB.) We will know by the end of the year if this is the right way to go." Hint to Soukup: Yes it is. is working well at a dozen telcos I;ve talked to.
     The details are surprising. DT is going for CORD, Open Source, Calix, and Radisys.

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1.6 Gig in Sckipio-Calix Test
A telco tells me they are getting impressive early results from the Calix 48 port DSLAM with the new Sckipio 212 MHz chips. There still is work to do but this is encouraging. 
    Carriers want DSLAMs with more than 16 ports to reduce the deployment costs from the basement or larger field cabinets. Speed matters to the marketing side of the company; AT&T's CEO believes he must offer a true gigabit to match cable. (They've been getting ~750 megabits with first generation chips.

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Reverse Power 4 Port DSLAM for Australia
Australia is connecting 1M homes to, some with a Netcomm distribution point mini-DSLAM. It's a small unit designed for pole or pit mounting. It's waterproof, pressure proof, and temperature resistant. Their matching home modem is bittorrent friendly, with two USB ports for a hard drive dedicated to sharing.
     A reverse power unit at the customer, the NDD-0100-01, can save the cost of bringing power to the DSLAM. They don't expect many orders until the second half of 2018, as nbn is waiting for the second generation chips. Netcomm demonstrated RP with BT Openreach in August.

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Australia Makes it Official: to Million Plus
No news here. In September, 2015, I reported Australia's nbn Going This June. I reported the million home fiber to the curb (kerb?) was beginning. Unfortunately, they are no closer to figuring out where to find the needed $10B to $20B to cover the cost overruns. Instead, the parties are battling in Parliament about who is to blame.

2 Bonded 212 Lines = 3 Gigabits
Sckipio at BBWF is demonstrating 3 gigabits down, nearly a gigabit up, over two phone lines, bonded. Twice the bandwidth (212 MHz instead of 106 MHz) times two lines is fast. Sckipio does great demos; at CES, they showed first generation chips delivering almost 1 gig upstream.
    “Sckipio is pushing Gfast to astonishing speeds with production silicon,” CEO David Baum proclaims. Calix is using the SCK23000 chipset in their 48 port gig+ DSLAM at the show.

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