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gfast map nov

Dark Green: Firm commitments from incumbent: BT (10M), Belgacom, Australian NBN, Swisscom,  Austria, Bezeq Israel, Chunghwa Taiwan, Telus Canada, Telekom South Africa, SK Korea, (U.S.) AT&T, Century, Frontier, Windstream, Belgium, Omantel

Mid Pink: Smaller carriers in Germany, Norway, Finland, Japan

Light Green: Incumbent likely:  France, Germany, Italy

Britain: 10M by 2020, most of the country by 2025. 4,000 home test expanding to 25,000. Wanted to deploy Q4 2016 if equipment ready, but delayed to 2nd half 2017. They are not going to the distribution points, merely upgrading existing cabinets. Speeds of 100-400 megabits rather than 500-800. DPU from Nokia and Huawei. The Brits love their gardens; only 11% live in apartments. (as of 7.15) AT&T: Originally set to deploy q1 2017, target in the millions. Still evaluating where to do fiber home and where Adtran's strong relationship with AT&T gives Adtran/Sckipio the inside track. Alcatel is hopeful. Chunghwa Taiwan: Abandoned promised fiber home build for in early 2016. With Alcatel, they declared deployment underway. There's no evidence of more than a trial. The country is mostly apartment buildings, natural for SK Korea: CEO in June 2016 said they would upgrade to 500 megabit in June of 2016. No details yet. Japan: Millions of lines of "fiber" are fiber to the basement plus VDSL to the apartments. Qualcomm/Ikanos had a likely lock on this. Centillium, now part of Ikanos, worked with the Japanese from the beginning and owns the market. They've added features to to work well with Japan's 30a VDSL. Now, it's up for grabs with Sckipio also supporting the 30a. Austria, Switzerland, Belgium (Proximus): All doing multi-technologies, depending on terrain, population density, and facilities in place. Fiber home, basement, distribution point, and node in different areas. All have active trials going well. Telus, Western Canada: CTO Ibrahim Gideon is a proud early adopter and will probably be one of the first here. NetCologne, Germany: Moving rapidly to > 300,000. Municipally owned with expansion plans nearby. France Telecom/Orange: Lots of fiber but they also intend to use from the basement in many buildings. Customers are unhappy with fiber construction in some buildings. Orange is looking to save money in others. Orange Poland: Has begun deploying but says it will only be used where fiber home is impractical. Panama: Cable company Liberty Global owns a phone company and they have announced Windstream: A mostly Southern U.S. regional with ~1M DSL customers. CEO Tony Thomas tells investors is coming in 2017. They will have a hard time financing much of a build, however; they are carrying $10B of debt with <$1B of equity. Century: After absorbing Qwest, passes 20M homes. Confirmed deployment. Israel: Bezeq is firm. Japan: Nokia announced Enecom would begin in June, 2016. I haven't confirmed this yet. Norway: Homenet/Broadnet intends to use for local connections from the 40,000 kilometers of fiber. Highly likely Germany: DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn told a reporter they would begin in 2015. He misspoke, as his staff told him when he returned to the office. Then the money side of the house spoke up. DT earnings haven't covered their dividends the last few years and they have a very limited budget. Meanwhile, the German government has allocated $4B for broadband, most of which will be subsidies to the companies for profitable upgrades. Looking for that money, DT has allowed their broadband upgrades to fall behind plan about two years. Politics. Australia: The NBN knows is the right choice in some districts. They've done costing and advanced trials. Again, politics intrude. NBN is yet again over budget and looking to government to make up the shortfall. They are using as a bargaining chip. U.S. Regionals (Frontier etc.): With nearly ubiquitous cable competition, most of it going to a gigabit, these folks have to do something. Plenty of apartment buildings in all territories. August 10: Century is confirmed, Elisa Finland: A mobile carrier with 1.4M customers. They have reached 880 megabits in trials and have told investors they intend to deploy. The regulator hasn't set the rules for using the frequencies, however. Telefonica Italy: Reported likely in 2017 by LR, Telecom Italia is reported to have plans.

The Site for gfast 230 News

I’m still working through remarkable presentations from the Broadband Forum events. Michael Weissman, Bernd Hesse and team did a remarkable job choosing the speakers.

Deutsche Telecom: 35b Supervectoring Delayed to 2019
Broadcom is now over 3 years late. DT briefed German reporters after their financial call and revealed 35b was now delayed until 2019. 35b should deliver 200+ meg downloads 500-600 meters, a crucial tool for DT, which is losing share to cable. Cable now covers about 70% of Germany and is expanding. DT now only offers 50-100 megabit DSL while cable is often 400 megabits, going to a gigabit. 

The problem is software; the hardware is shipping and supposedly will work. DT says 35b is not ready to turn on. Broadcom in 2015 said 35b was in "production" in the press release below. Alcatel in early 2016 said to expect complete systems very soon. "35g is very similar to 17a so there should be little delay."

Broadcom's problems are leading major telcos and vendors to have a plan B, using Sckipio DT itself is planning extensive deployments in 2019, mostly in apartment buildings.

Gigabit 100 Meters - Unless the Wires are Lousy
Speeds are fine, "Unless there's a line problem." I've been reporting for three years that ~10% of lines have problems. In the chart by Rami Verbin of Sckipio, he finds goes ~130 meters on good lines. Poor lines have about half the reach. 

His chart roughly matches the reports from Swisscom, Belgacom, and England for both & vectored DSL. The 10% with problems can cause the majority of the line-related complaints to support. The angry customers drive up cost.

Rami's solution to reach the gigabit is bonding, supported on the Sckipio chips. Verbin made some additional points:

  • 4 gigabits is possible by bonding two decent 2 gigabit lines.
  • Even in a service from remote cabinets, ~25% are close enough to get a full gigabit."
  • cDTA and iDTA are practical ways to deliver much higher upstream by switching some bandwidth from downstream to upstream only when needed.
  • 35B will probably be similar but Deutsche Telecom doesn't expect to deploy until 2019.

AT&T Wants Coax 2-5 Gigabit Very Soon.
AT&T faces intense competition from cable, talking about 10 gigabits in both directions. (Cable will only be 1 gig down, ~100 meg up, until ~2021.) AT&T wants something to brag about as well.

AT&T gained millions of lines of coax as part of the DirecTV deal. Alcatel and Huawei are leading the development of G.mgfast. That uses 424 MHz, full duplex, to achieve ~2.5 gigabits in both directions. The reach on telco twisted pair is only about 30 meters. On coax, those speeds can probably extend far enough to service most apartment buildings. Using 848 MHz, speeds can reach 5 gigabits. The ITU standards group has been aiming for 2019-2020 for G.mgfast, too slow for AT&T's marketers. David Titus wants a high-speed standard for coax "early in 2018." He believes that is "doable."

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